我国减少清洁能源发电弃能的机制设计及其模拟模型研究

The problems about abandoning energy of clean energy generation in China is quite serious. We focus on the research on the mechanism analysis of how to reduce the abandoning energy in clean energy power generating and its simulation models. Mechanism analysis specifically include the profit distribution in substituting power generation(reducing coal-fired plant), the on-grid price of clean energy power generation, the interregional power transmission price, the tax regulation rate re-allocation, the generating emissions (including carbon emissions) transaction mechanism, etc. For the situation of replacing coal-fired power generation by clean energy generation, according to the contract electricity price, the contract electric quantity, the emission discharge rate of coal-fired units, etc., we can construct the model of three-level profit distribution among power grid enterprise, coal-fired power generating units, clean power generation units. For the situation of replacing coal-fired power generation by clean energy generation in multiple regions, considering the regional emissions reduction targets, the regional electric sales price, the change of network transmission line loss, power transmission price, the cost variation in coal-fired power generation enterprises who have auxiliary wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation delivery, etc., we construct cooperation profit distribution simulation optimazition model. For the situation that the group consisting of big electric energy users in different areas and different industry directly purchasing the clean energy generation, considering the transmission price analysis (time-of-use price, season price, ladder price), all kinds of users transfer and abandon electricity in different time points, industry electric price, time-of-use and interrupt agreement price, environmental benefit apportion etc. we construct benefit sharing simulation optimization model among all the stakeholders.

我国清洁能源发电弃能相当严重，项目重点研究减少清洁能源发电弃能机制分析与模拟模型。机制分析具体包括清洁能源发电替代燃煤发电利益分配、清洁能源发电上网价格、跨区输电价格、税费调节、发电排放（含碳排放）交易等机制。对于清洁能源发电替代燃煤发电，根据合同发电价格、合同发电电量、燃煤机组排放费率等，构造电网企业、燃煤发电机组、清洁发电机组的三级利益分配模型。对于区域之间清洁能源发电替代燃煤发电，考虑区域减排目标、区域销售电价、输电价格、线损、辅助风电与光伏发电外送的燃煤发电企业成本变化等因素，构建合作利益分配模拟优化模型。对于不同区域不同行业电力用户组成的大用户群直接购买清洁能源发电情景，考虑输电价格分析（分时价格、季节价格、阶梯价格）、各类用户在不同时点的让电与弃电、行业电价、分时与中断协议电价、环境效益分摊等，构建利益主体之间效益共享模拟优化模型。

我国清洁能源发电弃能相当严重，亟需从促进清洁能源消纳的技术手段、市场交易、利益协调等方面入手，对我国清洁能源消纳机制开展深入研究。项目重点研究减少清洁能源发电弃能机制分析与模拟模型。机制分析具体包括需求响应协助清洁能源消纳机制、清洁能源集成微电网消纳机制、清洁能源集成虚拟电厂消纳机制、清洁能源集成多能互补系统消纳机制、发电排放（含碳排放）交易机制、跨区域清洁能源外送机制、清洁能源发电替代燃煤发电利益分配机制等。研究结果表明中国弃能问题的主要原因包括全国用电负荷增速放缓、清洁能源开发所在地负荷消纳能力不足、跨区域输电网的建设与清洁能源开发不匹配、风光发电出力随机特征较大以及电力系统智能化程度不足等。我国未来应重点发挥不同清洁能源间的优势互补作用，强化开展清洁能源组合消纳优化模式的创新（如引入需求响应，集成微电网，集成虚拟电厂，集成多能互补系统等），充分利用能源互补技术的创新、电力市场的推进、电力价格体系的完善、跨区域输电通道的建设等推动更好地消纳清洁能源发电。通过本项目的研究，深入开展克服清洁能源发电随机特性的研究，特别是借助需求响应、微电网、虚拟电厂、多能互补系统等技术，为清洁能源发电并网提供更大的容量空间，并通过碳排放权交易及跨区域清洁能源外送的研究，宏观上将减少发电所需的煤炭、燃油消耗，继而降低温室气体、污染气体的排放水平，微观上则为交易双方创造额外的经济效益、提高电力资源利用效率，促进清洁能源发电并网电量，本项目的研究对于解决中国当前弃能问题有着重要的意义。