群体决策中的情感预测偏差：形成机制及影响

It is generally assumed that people base decisions on the anticipated pleasure that they imagine alternatives to yield and that errors in affective forecasting yield suboptimal outcomes. One of the most widely observed biases in affective forecasting is the impact bias, whereby forecasters overestimate the intensity of their hedonic response to future events. Previous studies on affective forecasting biases were mostly conducted at the individual level, not at the group level. Therefore, based on our previous studies about the mechanism of affective forecasting biases at the individual level, this project, at the group level, seeks to explore the mechanism and influences of affective forecasting biases in group decision making on the basis of the information sampling model and the motivated information processing model. First, this project will explore whether the affective forecasting biases in group decisions exists or not; then, the mechanism (from the viewpoint of cognition, motivation, and motivated information processing) of affective forecasting biases in group decision making and the influences of affective forecasting biases on the group effort expended to produce the forecasted event will be explored. The project is expected to uncover the mechanism and influences of affective forecasting biases in group decision making and expand the research of affective forecasting biases to the group level. It is also hopeful that our research findings can provide the theoretical basis to reduce affective forecasting biases and improve the quality of group decision making in practice.

决策通常建立在对不同决策结果带来的情感进行预测的基础上, 人们会选择那些能带来幸福的结果，而避免会带来痛苦的结果。过去情感预测的研究大都从个体层面来探索，尚未见到群体层面的研究。因此，本项目在我们前期对个体情感预测偏差形成机制研究的基础上，立足于群体层面，以信息取样模型和动机性信息理论为基础，首先探索群体决策中是否存在情感预测偏差；在此基础上，进一步考察群体决策中情感预测偏差的形成机制；最后，考察群体决策中情感预测偏差对决策后努力程度的影响。以期探寻群体决策中情感预测偏差的形成机制及影响，并将情感预测偏差的研究扩展到群体层面。本项目的研究成果有望为减少情感预测偏差，提高群体决策质量提供理论依据。

以往情感预测的研究大多集中在群体层面，几乎没有未见到群体层面的研究。本项目考察了群体决策中的情感预测偏差及其形成机制。本项目的主要研究内容包括：（1）探索了群体决策中的情感预测偏差是否存在；（2）从认知和动机相互作用的视角，考察了群体决策中情感预测偏差的形成机制；（3）考察了情感预测偏差对于决策者实现目标的作用。.本项目得到以下主要结果：（1）群体决策也存在情感预测偏差，群体成员高估了消极决策结果带来的消极情感，而低估了积极决策结果带来的积极情感；（2）群体决策中情感预测偏差的形成机制：①聚焦错觉是导致群体决策中情感预测偏差的认知因素。当群体成员对决策结果进行情感预测时，由于忽视了群体成员之间相互作用对情感的积极作用，导致低估（或高估）群体决策结果带来的积极情感（或消极情感）。②基于自我调节理论，调节定向和调节匹配会影响情感预测的影响偏差。促进定向的群体比防御定向的群体表现出更大的情感预测偏差；调节匹配条件比调节不匹配条件下群体表现出更大的情感预测偏差。③基于动机性信息加工理论，群体的认知动机和社会动机会影响情感预测的影响偏差。高认知动机（或社会动机）条件下的情感预测偏差显著小于低认知动机（或社会动机）条件下的情感预测偏差。④群体认同会影响群体决策中的情感预测偏差。群体认同高的时候比群体认同低的时候，群体成员出现的情感预测偏差更小。（3）情感预测偏差会影响决策者实现目标的努力程度。.本项目的研究成果的科学意义：（1）探索了群体决策中的情感预测偏差，拓展了以往关于情感预测的研究领域。（2）从认知和动机相互作用的视角，系统地探索了群体决策情感预测偏差的形成机制，可以帮助人们理解群体决策中情感预测偏差是如何形成的。（3）本项目提出情感预测偏差其实是个体自我调节的一种策略，会激发个体更大的动力去实现目标，采取与目标一致的行为，具有理论创新。