碳减排和污染防治目标下电力流动的环境影响及优化研究

The intensified power grids and the growing interregional trade, will drive increasing electric power flows and the shift of associated environmental problems across regions and industries. The existing emission reduction policies from a single production-based perspective would result in emission leakage and a lower effectiveness. Given that, under the carbon emission reduction and pollution control targets, this project will investigate the direct electric power flows and that embodied in the trade products, by constructing the theoretical framework and empirical model of the environmental accounting and multi-objective optimization of electric power flows. The results will provide insights into the optimization of power flows. Specific research contents include: 1) Based on the time series power sectors data, this project will analyze the direct and embodied power flows and identify the spatial structure at multi-scales. 2) Based on time series emission data of micro-power generation enterprises in different regions, this project will compile the power related emission inventory covering production-based, supply-based and consumption-based perspective, and investigate the environmental impact of direct and embodied power flows. 3) Under the carbon emission reduction and pollution control targets, this project will develop a multi-objective optimization model from the perspective of supply-based and consumption-based, and discuss the policy paths. This project will not only extend the theory and method of the spatial structure and its environmental effects of electric power flows, but also provide guidance for optimizing the spatial and industrial structure of China's electric power flows.

随着电网互联互通和贸易往来增多，电力跨区域流动愈加频繁，加剧了电力排放在空间和产业间的转移，以往基于单一发电视角的减排政策会顾此失彼，造成排放泄漏等问题，极大影响政策有效性。因此，本课题以直接和隐含电力流动为切入点，以碳减排和污染防治为导向，构建电力排放核算和多目标优化的理论框架和实证模型，以提出电力流动优化的政策建议。具体研究内容如下：①基于各年份电力工业数据，进行不同尺度下的直接和隐含电力流动的测度和空间特征分析；②基于多年份多地区的微观发电企业排放数据，编制基于生产、供给和消费视角的电力排放清单，分析直接和隐含电力流动的环境影响；③从供给和消费视角，构建电力减排多目标优化模型，探讨不同政策情景下基于直接和隐含电力流动的碳减排和污染防治政策路径。本研究成果将拓展电力流动空间结构和环境影响的理论和方法研究，为电力流动空间和产业结构优化提供理论依据和政策建议。

电力部门是我国温室气体和大气污染物排放的主要来源，随着对气候变化和空气质量问题的重视，亟需推动电力部门的减污降碳、服务于我国碳中和目标。然而，我国大规模的跨区域电力传输造成碳排放和大气污染物排放压力的转移，这对于分配区域减排责任带来挑战。因此，本项目综合运用网络模型、多区域环境投入产出模型、温室气体和污染物排放清单编制等方法，通过追踪直接电力和隐含电力流动，建立了涵盖生产侧、供给侧、消费侧的多视角电力碳排放和污染物排放核算体系。该核算体系将发电、输电、用电联系起来，并进一步考虑区域贸易、区域最终消费对于电力排放的分配效应。在此基础上，从不同视角量化了各地区的电力排放责任，探讨了电力流动对不同地区的环境影响，并识别了电力排放的主要影响因素，为制定合理的区域电力减排政策提供依据。具体来说，本项目的科学意义在于：在理论方面，本项目构建了多视角电力碳排放和污染物排放核算框架，为研究电力流动时空演变和电力传输对区域环境影响提供了理论和方法的支持；在实证层面，本项目评估了影响不同视角下区域电力相关排放的驱动因素，并分析了跨区域电力传输对于区域经济、环境的影响；在政策层面，本项目探讨了国家和地区在生产侧、供给侧和消费侧的碳减排和污染防治政策路径，为我国电力系统减污降碳提供了系统全面的指导。在本项目资助下，项目负责人在Fundamental Research、Nature Sustainability、《中国科学院院刊》等国内外学术期刊发表论文46篇，提交的相关决策咨询报告多次被国家和省部级领导批示。