基于多情景模拟的片区固定避难无序变动仿真建模及避难设施布局优化研究

Permanent evacuation in China is orderly evacuation based on the responsibility area in the management unit or by the natural boundary. Due to the shape of the responsibility area and the irregularity of the boundary, the difference in the function of the land in each area and the attraction of the shelter, the disorderly change of evacuees, especially the cross-border and special personnel is inevitable, which is extremely necessary to deal with it in the practice of asylum. However, it is seriously insufficient to determine the demand and layout based on the resident population and classify and configure the shelter facilities. Therefore, the program is mainly intended to: take the cross-border and specific personnel who cause the disorder during the permanent evacuation as a study object, analyze the characteristics of the areas and shelters which lead to disorder evacuation, and establish a selection model of permanent evacuation shelters taking into account the spatial characteristics of the area; coupled with dynamic evacuation simulation model of multi-agent in complex system, set a large number of scenarios for the characteristic factors causing disordered personnel changes, carry out simulation and analysis, and explore the law of disorderly change of permanent evacuation personnel; propose layout optimization design methods for shelters and facilities considering sensitivity analysis of evacuation sites and facilities layout under the disorderly change and optimization benchmark adjustment. The research can further enrich and deepen the design theory of urban disaster prevention and shelter sites, and provide a theoretical basis for urban disaster prevention and safety layout.

我国固定避难是基于以管理单元或天然界限为边界的责任区形式有序疏散，由于分区形状及边界不规则性、各区用地功能差异和避难场所吸引力不同，避难人员特别是跨边界及特殊人员疏散的无序变动不可避免，避难实践中加以应对极为必要，传统研究中以常住人口为基准确定需求和布局、分类配置避难设施对此考虑严重不足。因此，本项目以造成固定避难无序的片区跨边界及特定人员为研究对象，分析导致避难无序的片区及场所特征，建立考虑片区空间特征吸引度的固定避难场所选择模型；耦合复杂系统智能体动态疏散仿真模型，针对引起人员无序变动的特征因素设置大量情景，开展仿真模拟分析，探究固定避难人员无序变动规律；在以上研究的基础上，开展考虑人员无序变动下避难场所及设施布局的敏感性分析和调整优化基准研究，提出适应无序变动的避难场所及设施的布局优化设计方法。研究成果可进一步丰富和深化城市防灾避难场所设计理论，也为城市防灾安全布局提供理论依据。

我国固定避难是基于以管理单元或天然界限为边界的责任区形式有序疏散，由于分区形状及边界不规则性、各区用地功能差异和避难场所吸引力不同，避难人员特别是跨边界及特殊人员疏散的无序变动不可避免，避难实践中加以应对极为必要，传统研究中以常住人口为基准确定需求和布局、分类配置避难设施对此考虑严重不足。因此，本项目以造成固定避难无序的片区跨边界及特定人员为研究对象，考虑片区空间特征的构建了震后疏散需求预测模型及固定避难场所吸引度模型，更加直观的模拟出人员疏散演化特性；耦合复杂系统智能体动态疏散仿真模型，针对引起人员无序变动的特征因素设置大量情景，开展仿真模拟分析，探究固定避难人员无序变动规律及避难空间优化设计方法；在以上研究的基础上，开展考虑人员无序变动下避难场所及设施布局的敏感性分析和调整优化基准研究，提出适应无序变动的避难场所及设施的布局优化设计方法；分析不同类型用地街区尺度疏散避难行动时空过程与空间构成要素的关联影响，通过多情景动态仿真优化避难空间；基于以人为本、韧性城市的理念，开展不确定性条件下的区域能源、环境系统优化和规划，改善区域疏散空间发展模式、优化资源配置、提升城市韧性。研究成果可进一步丰富和深化城市防灾避难场所设计理论，也为城市防灾安全布局提供理论依据。.项目组经过三年精心钻研，顺利完成各项计划研究内容，取得了诸多创新性成果。依托本课题，项目组共培养硕士生5名；在Natural Hazards Review、Journal of Cleaner Production、Environmental Engineering Science、《安全与环境学报》、《灾害学》等期刊发表学术论文10篇，被SCI检索3篇、中文核心6篇（中国科协高质量科技期刊T1期刊5篇）；出版学术专著2部；1篇中文核心论文（T1）录用待刊；2篇中文论文在投，3篇英文论文在投。相关研究成果会在如皋、许昌、洛阳等城市抗震防灾规划编制中进行应用，取得了良好的社会和经济效益。