支持室内呼吸道疾病传播模拟的多层次人地关系建模研究

The modeling approaches for propagation simulation of respiratory disease are to be studied at the micro indoor scale. The contents of this proposal are composed of 3 parts, which are "spatial relationship", "social relationship", and "propagation relationship". Firstly, a dynamical human-environment-coupled spatial topological model was proposed, for the special characteristics that the indoor space is divided into several sub-spaces by boundary of rooms. Based on that, an optimal algorithm for neighbors finding was proposed. Secondly, the concept of "group" was introduced to ensure the marching behavior more realistic, based on which a revised algorithm of marching model was proposed considering the social relationship between agents. Thirdly, because human and the environment can influence each other in the micro indoor scale, the "environment" was treated as a special propagation channel of respiratory disease. A human-environment-integrated disease propagation model was thus proposed considering both synchronous and asynchronous transmission. The propagation generation network could then be built up so that the overall characteristics of the respiratory disease can be abstracted and analyzed more easily. Finally, a virtual experiment platform for respiratory disease propagation simulation at the indoor level will be designed and developed, and a series of experiments will then be carried out based on the platform, the models, as well as the algorithms proposed in this proposal. The research of disease simulation and virtual experiments based on multi-agent can be promoted by the proposal, as well as the medical geography at the disciplinary level.

本申请着眼于"室内"微观地理尺度，从"人地关系"的视角，研究呼吸道疾病传播模拟的建模方法。研究从"空间关系"、"社会关系"和"传播关系"三个层次展开。（1）针对"室内"空间被物理隔离的特点，构建人地耦合的动态空间拓扑模型，研究考虑空间拓扑关系的智能体邻居优化搜索算法；（2）考虑社会关系的因素，引入群组的概念，使智能体出行结构更相似于现实；依据社会关系的远近，研究基于吸引力和排斥力的智能体出行行为修正算法；（3）在传播关系上，考虑微观尺度下人地相互影响的特点，将"地"作为疾病传播的一种节点，构建同步传播与异步传播共同作用下的疾病传播模型和人地一体化的疾病传播代系网络，从传播关系的视角，分析疾病传播的特征。最后，研发虚拟实验平台，设计虚拟实验，验证本申请的模型和方法。本申请可促进疾病传播模拟和虚拟实验方法的进一步深入，在学科层次，可促进地理学与公共卫生领域研究方法的交叉，推动医学地理学的发展。

呼吸道传染病是危害人的健康安全的重要因素之一。其传播过程及机理的研究，将有助于把握传染病的传播规律，为相关部门控制传染病的蔓延提供科学的决策依据。本项目着眼于“室内”微观地理尺度，从“人地关系”的地理学视角，研究呼吸道疾病传播模拟的建模方法。. 本项目的主要研究内容为：（1）空间关系方面，构建人地耦合的空间拓扑模型，研究考虑空间拓扑关系的智能体邻居优化搜索算法；（2）社会关系方面，依据社会关系的远近，研究基于吸引力和排斥力的智能体出行行为修正算法；（3）传播关系方面，考虑微观尺度下人地相互影响的特点，将“地”作为疾病传播的一种节点，构建同步传播与异步传播共同作用下的疾病传播模型。. 本项目取得的重要研究成果为：（1）提出了人地耦合的空间投影场模型，将室内人群及其行为、室内建筑及其拓扑关系都动态映射为投影场中，依据空间关系，建立人地时空拓扑模型，并基于投影场模型提出考虑视域范围的智能体邻居快速搜寻算法；（2）基于修正的社会力模型，提出考虑碰撞预测（包括人人碰撞、人地碰撞）的智能体出行行为算法，基于此，发展出了典型区域内的人群行为模型；（3）从地理学的角度，将“人”、“地”都纳入传播载体，提出了考虑同步传播和异步传播的微观尺度下人地一体化呼吸道疾病传播模型；（4）基于以上关键算法，研发出了室内呼吸道疾病传播模拟的原型系统，并以SARS传播为例，实施了虚拟传播实验，并与实测数据进行对比，证明了本申请所提算法的正确性和可行性；同时，本申请所提的虚拟实验方法还具有安全的特点。. 本项目的研究对微观室内人群行为、微观疾病传播的新型研究方法的探索，对虚拟地理实验方法、医学地理学和面向人的地理信息科学均有推进；本项目的研究，尤其是关键模型和算法，可供后续研究者借鉴和参考。