中小学生呼吸道疾病传播的复杂网络建模分析

Primary and secondary schools has been one of the most popular places of the infectious diseases. Some developed countries has just begun to quantitatively study the contact patterns for primary and secondary students in the schools in the recent two years, while there is a few works in our national. Describing and understanding contacts between children at school would help quantify the transmission opportunities of respiratory infections and provide an important theoretical basis for disease prevention. With the support of Wuhan centers for disease prevention and control, we intent to select different kinds of primary and secondary schools in Wuhan, and collect the contact data using a combination of surveys and wireless sensors, then construct the contact networks of students. Furthermore, we explore the transmission of several respiratory diseases in these primary and secondary schools by means of the new achievements in complex networks, and identify the factors that influence the spread of the diseases and prevention strategies from the perspective of network science. The study of this project not only has significant academic value for the complex network of transmission theory, but also has injected new vitality for the practical application of complex networks.

中小学一直是传染病最容易流行的场所之一。近两年来，一些发达国家刚刚开始对中小学学生在学校中的接触行为模式进行定量研究，而国内还缺少这方面的研究。建立一个比较精确的学生接触的数学模型，有利于定量分析呼吸道疾病的传播规律，并为疾病的预防提供重要理论依据。本项目在武汉市疾病预防控制中心的支持下，拟选择一些具有代表性和不同特点的中小学作为研究对象，通过问卷调查和无线传感器相结合的方法收集数据，在统计分析的基础上建立学生接触网络模型，运用复杂网络理论的最新成果，探索几种呼吸道疾病在不同特点的中小学的传播机制，从网络科学的角度找出影响疾病传播的因素和预防策略。本项目的研究不但对于复杂网络的传播理论具有重要的学术价值，也将为复杂网络的实际应用注入了新的活力。

中小学一直是传染病最容易流行的场所之一。建立一个比较精确的学生接触的数学模型，有利于定量分析呼吸道疾病的传播规律，并为疾病的预防提供重要理论依据。本项目在武汉市疾病预防控制中心的支持下，选择了中小学作为研究对象，通过实际调查收集数据，在统计分析的基础上建立学生接触网络模型。运用复杂网络理论的传染病模型进行建模分析，从网络科学的角度找出了影响疾病传播的因素和预防的策略。. 本项目利用非线性动力学理论、复杂网络理论、时间序列分析和计算机仿真的手段，在复杂动态网络疾病传播方面取得重要的创新性成果。另外，在多层网络同步、复杂网络同步过程、时间序列重构复杂网络等方面取得一系列重要的创新性成果。在 Chaos, Chinese Physics B, BMC Infectious Diseases等国际知名期刊上发表 SCI期刊论文6 篇，培养硕士研究生 2 名。