跨流域引水对天然径流的补偿机理及其不确定性研究

Large scale inter-basin water transfer has become one of the most important means to achieve optimal water resources allocation in China. It has been demonstrated that scientifically evidenced based water transfer operation can reduce the imbalance between water supply and demand. The difficulty of water transfer operation lies in the determination of the total water transfer volume and its processes. This should be built on the best use of the compensation between controlled inflow to natural inflow, which will effectively reduce the uncertainty of natural inflow. However, the simple and loose coupling of complementarity and reservoir regulation can neither reflect the efficiency of water transfer nor provide guidance for water transfer decision-making. Inflow forecast information can increase the efficiency of water transfer and help complementarity to play its part. But its uncertainty poses a challenge in water transfer decision-making and increases the risk of operation. Based on the current state of reservoir operation and forecast information utilization in inter-basin water transfer projects, this project aims to link the reservoir regulation and controlled inflow compensation and analyze the mechanism of the above problem. First, both the method of theoretical derivation and the method of numerical simulation are used to study the complementary mechanism of controlled inflow to natural inflow to reveal the fundamental mechanism of the compensation and its form of expression. Second, the project will analyze the uncertainty of the runoff forecast and its influence on the compensation mechanism. Third, the problem that how the forecast information uncertainty will influence the reservoir operation risk will be investigated, and a criterion on forecast information utilization will be established. This project will provide scientific support for improving water transfer efficiency in inter-basin water transfer projects, and provide theoretical and technical support for informed decision-making.

大规模跨流域调水工程已成为我国水资源优化配置的重要途径，科学合理的引水调度能有效缓解我国水资源供需矛盾。引水调度的难点在于引水总量及其过程的确定，其依据是充分发挥人工引水对天然径流的补偿作用，降低天然径流的不确定性。补偿作用常隐藏于水库调蓄过程中，以往研究未能给出补偿效应的作用机制与表现形式，难以有效指导引水调度决策。预报信息利用能有效提高引水效率，有助于补偿作用发挥，但预报信息具有不确定性，可能造成引水决策失误，增加调度风险。为此，本项目针对跨流域引水调度及预报信息利用问题，拟从机理机制入手，将水库调蓄与引水补偿作用相耦合，采用理论推导和数值模拟相结合的方法研究人工引水对天然径流的补偿作用，揭示补偿作用的深层机理与表现形式；之后，分析径流预报不确定性对补偿作用的影响机制；并开展预报信息不确定性对水库调度风险的影响研究，建立预报信息的可利用准则，提高引水效率，为科学决策提供理论与技术支持。

大规模跨流域调水工程已成为我国水资源优化配置的重要途径，科学合理的引水调度能有效缓解我国水资源供需矛盾。引水调度的难点在于引水总量及其过程的确定，其依据是充分发挥人工引水对天然径流的补偿作用，降低天然径流的不确定性。本项目通过3年的研究揭示了可控的人工引水对天然径流“倒S型曲线”的非线性补偿作用机制；考虑补偿效益-成本的对冲关系以及保证率约束，提出了通用的跨流域人工引水规模确定方法；创新了补偿调节调度理论与方法，以缺水风险、弃水风险以及引水成本最小为目标，构建了通用调度模型，识别了引水边际效益与边际成本的平衡点，得到了引、蓄、供最优决策；系统阐明了最优决策对系统可用水量、引水规模、预报不确定性、可接受风险等关键因子的响应机制，首次提出了跨流域引水的预报信息可利用准则，项目研究成果在辽宁省大伙房水库应急入连工程得到全方位应用验证，指导了跨流域引水工程的调度运行。基于上述成果，发表论文4篇SCI论文，其中包括水文水资源领域顶级期刊《Water Resources Research》1篇，《Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management》1篇，《Journal of Hydrology》1篇。申请发明专利2项，其中“一种基于成本-效益分析的跨流域引水工程规模确定方法”专利获得授权，且与企业达成了百万元的技术转让；授权软件著作权2项；研究成果作为主要创新点申请并获批了2019年辽宁省科技进步一等奖。