绿色基础设施导向的城市生态弹性规划分析模型研究

Cities in our country are facing more and more serious disasters caused by rapid urbanization and frequently occurrence of extreme climate and weather events. Urban sustainable development is facing with great challenges. Taking Nanjing as a case study, by developing the green infrastructure (GI) concept and the resilient citiy princple, this project intend to explore the interaction mechanism of conversion between urban physical space and natural ecological space, and accordingly to build Ecological Cellular Automaton (ECA) model to capture the spatial-temporal change of natural ecology space. This project will be supported by RS and GIS technolgoy, meanwhile, the green infrastructure planning method, urban ecological resilience planning strategies, landscape ecological safety strategy as well as the urban planning principle will be coupled with the urban growth model SLEUTH, and then the technical framework and analysis model of urban ecological resilience planning will be established. The developed model will help to find out their characteristics during the process of spatial-temporal evolution of urban physical space and natural ecological space. This project points out the importance of the combination of smart growth and smart conservation. The results of this project, especially the developed urban ecological resilience planning model will provide a great way to guide urban planning as well as protect the urban natural spaces. Accordingly, the ability to withstand a wide array of disasters that brought by rapid urbanization and climate change will be enhanced.

我国城市正面临越来越严峻的因快速城市化和极端气候与天气事件频发而带来的各类生态环境与灾害问题，可持续发展受到巨大挑战。本项目以南京为例，引入绿色基础设施和弹性城市理念，在RS 和GIS 支持下，利用多时相遥感数据，基于绿色基础设施规划方法、生态弹性规划策略、景观生态安全战略与城市规划相关原理，探索城市物质空间与自然生态空间转换的相互作用机理，构建自然生态空间动态变化的ECA 模型，并与经典城市增长模型（SLEUTH）集成，尝试创建一套城市生态弹性规划的技术框架与分析模型，实现城市物质空间和自然生态空间动态演化分析的融合，为科学确定城市增长空间与自然生态保护空间提供有价值的参考。本研究强调精明增长与精明保护的有机统一，并通过学科交叉，为城市生态弹性规划提供一套技术框架和分析模型，将为我国城市发展与规划提供新的研究视角，进而指导城市提高应对快速城市化和气候变化带来的各类灾害的能力。

我国城市正面临越来越严峻的因快速城市化和极端气候与天气事件频发而带来的各类生态环境与灾害问题，可持续发展受到巨大挑战。本项目以南京为例，引入绿色基础设施和弹性城市理念，在RS 和GIS 支持下，利用多时相遥感数据，基于绿色基础设施规划方法、生态弹性规划策略、景观生态安全战略与城市规划相关原理，探索城市物质空间与自然生态空间转换的相互作用机理，首先构建了自然生态空间动态变化的生态元胞自动机（ECA）分析框架，再与经典城市增长模型（SLEUTH）进行松散耦合，创建了一套城市生态弹性规划的技术分析框架，实现了城市物质空间和自然生态空间动态演化分析的融合，为科学确定城市增长空间与自然生态保护空间提供了有价值的参考与依据。研究结果表明：（1）ECA分析框架既能够较好地辨识研究区既有的高质量生态空间，也能够科学地识别未来需要保护与修复的潜在生态空间，从而为研究区城市生态弹性规划、城市修补与生态修复规划提供了重要的空间判据；（2）ECA与SLEUTH模型的松散耦合较好地解决了在保护中开发与在开发中保护的矛盾，实现了精明增长与精明保护的有机统一。本研究通过学科交叉，为城市生态弹性规划提供了一套技术分析框架和方法体系，将为我国城市发展与规划提供新的研究视角，进而指导城市提高应对快速城市化和气候变化带来的各类灾害的能力。