环境变化背景下水资源需求机理及预测方法研究

Water shortage is an integral aspect of the natural condition and socio-economic development in China, this regarded as one of the most challenging environmental problem in the 21st century. This threatens food security, economic development and ecological balance. With the economic development, population growth and changing climate in the future, the gap between supply and demand will be more serious than ever before. Therefore, it is necessary to forecasting future water demand under changing environement, and make some necessary changes of the traditional way for water management under the future changing environment. In this research, we point out Water demand have the relationship with population growth, economic development and climate change, different factors have different effects on the water demand. We discussed the potentially impacts of environment change on water demand. Future Water demand have dynamic interactions among physical elements (natural runoff, groundwater recharge), environmental (water quality, ecosystem preservation) and socio-economic (population growth, water consumption, policy and management) aspects of water management in regional water resources system. Through the analysis of multi-feedbacks and nonlinear interactions among system elements, a complex system dynamics (SD) model was developed using water demand theory, water price theory and system theory, so the total water demand in the future can be forecasted under the future changes of population, economic and climate scenario. Besides, methods as information entropy of water utilization structure, water use and economic elasticity were used for testing water demand.At last, Practice of Water Demand forecasting in Yulin city in Northwestern China are disscussed. Yulin city locates on the Eastern Monsoon zone where climate is quite dry. Shortage of water resources in the city has handicapped the development of so through the analsysis, we can draw the future water demand under changing environemnt, this will be helpful for water resources palnning and management for the whole area's economic devlopment.

随着人口急剧增长和经济快速发展，水资源短缺对我国经济社会发展的制约效应日益明显，加之受到全球气候变暖影响，未来我国水资源形势将更加严峻。鉴于此，本研究针对我国水资源规划与管理中的需水预测难题，拟从水资源需求驱动因子识别、需水预测模型构建、需水预测合理性检验三个方面开展深入分析研究。研究在分析环境变化对工业、农业、生活、生态需水的影响机理上，探讨气候变化、人口增长、经济发展等外部环境变化对水资源需求驱动机制；结合未来各种外部环境要素变化过程，建立基于系统动力学、水资源供需理论、水价调节理论、用户承受能力等多因素影响的预测模型，仿真模拟不同水资源调控策略下未来水资源需求态势，提出基于用水弹性系数、用水结构信息熵等理论的需水合理性方法体系。以黄河中游能源重化工基地榆林市为例，分析水资源需求驱动要素，仿真模拟未来不同水平年需水动态变化过程，为促进能源基地经济社会协调发展提供重要参考。

本研究针对需水预测偏大及其导致的水资源管理难题，从水资源需求驱动因子识别、需水预测模型构建、需水预测合理性检验方面历经三年研究，全面完成了研究计划任务，超额实现了预期目标，取得主要成果为：（1）揭示了环境变化背景下水资源需求驱动机理。分析了经济发展、人口增长、气候变化等外部环境变化要素对水资源需求的影响机理；（2）构建了环境变化对水资源需求影响分析仿真模型。基于未来气候变化情景、经济发展趋势、人口增长变化，统筹考虑环境变化与需水过程涉及的资源、环境、社会经济以及政策等诸多因素的复杂关系，构建了统筹系统理论、水资源供需理论、水价调节理论等多因素影响的水资源需求影响分析仿真模型，实现对区域工业需水、农业需水、生活需水、生态需水的动态模拟与分析；（3）提出了环境变化背景下需水预测合理性检验方法体系。提出基于用水公平理论、用水结构均衡理论、用水-经济协调理论、供用耗排平衡理论的需水预测合理性检验方法体系，建立了用水基尼系数、用水结构信息熵、用水经济增长弹性等需水预测检验模型；（4）仿真模拟了研究区未来环境变化背景下水资源需求态势。基于未来气候变化情景、经济发展趋势、人口增长变化，采用研究建立的需水预测仿真模型，按照常规管理、供水管理、需水管理三种模式仿真模拟了榆林市未来水资源供需态势。结果显示，榆林市在常规管理、供水管理、需水管理模式下，2030年需水量分别为19.1亿立方米、21.0亿立方米、15.8亿立方米。研究成果进一步完善了我国需水预测理论，为我国开展需水预测提供理论支撑。先后参加学术交流25次，发表论文20篇，其中SCI收录8篇、EI收录3篇。