农业大灾保险对规模经营农户生产要素配置行为的影响研究

Farmers with scaled-up operations will be the subject of modern agriculture in China. In order to identify causal effect between current crop insurance policy which is transformating from covering materialized cost to covering production cost or income and production factors (including cropland, labour, and capital especially a variety of cost inputs) allocation behavior of farmers with scaled-up operations (expecially large agricultural family operations, and family farms) in agricultural production, this project will employ quasi-natural experiment and questionnaire survey about pilot program of crop insurance covering catastrophe cisks which began in 2017. Firstly, we will adopt simultaneous equations model to extimate whether crop catastrophe insurance can motivate farmers to enlarge cropland management scale; Secondly, we will design various planting diversification indices to investigate whether buying crop catastrophe insurance can make the crop production of farmers with scaled-up operations to be more specialized; Thirdly, we will apply ordered logit model and multinomial logit model to explore how the crop catastrophe insurance influence labour distribution of farmers with scaled-up operations between agricultural and non-agricultural production; Lastly, we will separately use difference-in-difference (DID), propensity score matching (PSM), and hybrid propensity score matching difference-in-difference (PSM-DID) to analyze relationship between participating in crop catastrophe insurance and a variety of cost inputs in crop production, and considering heterogeneity of different crops and diversified cost inputs. This study can provide more convincing theoretical and empirical support to further improve crop insurance system and strengthen the correlation between crop insurance and modern agriculture.

规模经营农户是现代农业的主体。为识别由保物化成本向保生产成本、保收入转型的农业保险政策与种田大户、家庭农场等规模经营主体在农业生产中土地、劳动力、资本尤其是各类成本投入等要素配置行为之间的因果关系，本研究以我国始于2017年的农业大灾保险试点为契机开展准自然实验进行实地问卷调查，一是采用联立方程模型衡量农业大灾保险是否激励规模农户扩大农地经营规模；二是通过构建多个种植多样化指数估计规模农户参与农业大灾保险是否促使其生产更为专业化；三是采用有序和多项Logit模型识别规模经营农户参与农业大灾保险如何影响其在农业生产和非农业生产中的劳动力资源分配；四是分别应用倍差、匹配和匹配倍差模型检测规模农户参与农业大灾保险和其各类成本投入行为之间的关系，并考虑不同种类农作物和不同类型成本投入的异质性特点。本研究可为进一步优化我国农业保险制度及强化农业保险和现代农业之间的关联度提供有说服力的理论和实证依据。

项目背景：作为分散农业生产经营风险的重要金融工具，历经十多年跨越式发展，农业保险在支持农业现代化方面取得显著成效，其在保障粮食安全、促进规模经营、优化生产结构等方面的政策效应不断显现出来。. 主要研究内容：衡量农业保险改变农户土地资源配置行为的作用；检测农业保险激励农户调整农作物种植结构的效应；考察农业保险市场保险公司、基层政府的道德风险问题；探究国际畜牧业保险和草原保险市场发展概况；牧户信贷和保险。. 重要结果：（1）农作物保险对激活及完善农地流转市场具有激励作用。（2）从微观层面看，参与保险显著影响农户农作物种植结构，特别是降低生产专业化水平；参与保险会激励农户种粮，但作用较小。从宏观层面看，具有高保障水平的农业保险在促进种植结构“趋粮化”方面优势明显。（3）伴随中国农业保险市场快速扩大，保险公司、基层政府的道德风险问题日益突出，给农业保险市场带来较大经营风险。（4）利用保险工具转移市场风险是美国畜牧业安全网的核心政策，且通过保险分散草原风险也具有一定代表性，两类保险产品的运行机制值得中国借鉴。（5）约2/3的牧户存在信贷行为，一半牧户存在信贷约束；信贷规模具有“额度偏小、差异较大”特点；“融资难、贷款贵”问题仍然存在；牧户信贷主要用于生产性支出。. 关键数据：在内蒙古12个盟市调查1023户农牧户。. 科学意义：研究结论不仅可为优化内蒙古乃至中国农业保险制度和创新农业保险产品提供有说服力的经验证据，而且可为政府出台强化农业保险支持农地流转市场培育、保障粮食安全、调整农业生产结构的政策提供决策参考。. 研究成果：发表论文9篇；参编教材1部；联合承办学术会议2次；培养研究生2人。. 关键词：农业保险；农户；土地流转；种植结构；成本投入