开发区政策的评估与优化：基于颗粒经济的数量空间经济学研究

The construction of a quantitative evaluation system for the special economic zones policy is crucial to the formation of new agglomeration effect and growth momentum in China's economy. In order to meet the needs of the construction of the overseas parks in the 'One Belt, One Road' initiative and the upgrading of the special economic zones in china, this project proposes a new idea of quantitatively evaluating the special economic zones policy: relying on the model, structural calibration analysis of special economic zones policy to enhance quantitative assessment accuracy and forward-looking of the special economic zones policy. In order to solve construction problem of the above theoretical model, this project proposes to establish a quantitative economic model with granular economy, which can be closely related to data of the special economic zones policy, and achieve a quantitative assessment and counterfactual analysis of the special economic zones policy. This analysis overcomes the shortcomings of the reduced-form regression analysis that can't analyze the welfare effect. It can get rid of the shackles of the reduced-form regression analysis which can't miss the variable data. It is expected to achieve quantitative evaluation and policy optimization of the special economic zones policy. This project will conduct basic theoretical research in three aspects: theoretical model construction, parameter calibration and counterfactual analysis, establish a quantitative economic model with granular economy, realize quantitative evaluation of the special economic zones policy, and promote China's the special economic zones and overseas cooperative parks.

构建面向开发区政策的量化评估体系对我国新的集聚效应和增长动力的形成至关重要。本项目针对“一带一路”建设中境外园区建设和境内开发区升级的需求，提出一种量化评估开发区政策的新思路：利用以模型为依托、结构性校准分析开发区政策，提升量化评估开发区政策的准确性和前瞻性。为解决上述理论模型的构建难题，本项目提出建立以颗粒经济为基础的数量空间经济学模型，该模型能与开发区政策相关数据紧密联系，实现对开发区政策的一般均衡的量化评估和反事实分析，克服了简化型的回归分析不能进行福利效应分析的弊端，摆脱了简化型的回归分析不能缺失变量数据的束缚，有望实现对中国开发区政策的量化评估和优化。本项目将在理论模型构建、参数校准和政策反事实分析等三个方面进行基础理论研究，建立以颗粒经济为基础的数量空间经济学模型，实现对开发区政策的量化评估，推动我国开发区和境外合作园区的发展。

本项目聚焦开发区政策中龙头企业的作用问题。准确识别龙头企业对开发区和所在城市的影响，评估开发区政策的成本收益问题，将从颗粒经济视角拓展学术界对开发区外部性的全面认识，并为政策制定者对开发区政策的成本与收益、对未来开发区升级和改造提供源于经济学领域的科学依据。.本项目2020年1月起实施。截止目前，本项目严格按照研究计划进度，完成了文献回顾、理论梳理、数据资料收集、统计分析、论文撰写等所有环节，进入结题阶段。项目设定2-3篇学术论文的发表日标。目前项目成果为2篇工作论文。.项目研究将龙头企业纳入开发区政策中，识别出龙头企业的正外部性，估算了龙头企业对开发区和所在城市的影响。本项目对开发区政策的评估研究具有政策含义：查明部分开发区的政策成本与收益“倒挂”困境的成因，找到龙头企业在开发区政策中作用，为新的开发区的综合改革提供建议；为政府在开发区政策中对龙头企业提供差异性政策提供评判依据，从而在开发区政策中针对龙头企业补贴需要相应调整，预期这些研究发现将会服务于末来的政策设计。.