基于战略消费者的供应链决策模型及其应用

Currently, the strategic behaviors of consumers have the following three distinctive characteristics. First, consumers are much more strategic now --- they try to anticipate the decisions of both the firms and other consumers rationally. Second, they not only choose the proper purchasing time but also select the channel to buy the product. Third, when consumers make their purchasing decisions, they will not longer only consider the product’s characters such as quality and price, but also take into account the gains that related to the social interaction or generated from other social psychology..With consideration of the above facts, this project will incorporate the consumers’ strategic behavior into supply chain decision models, to investigate the impacts of the consumers’ strategical behavior as well as other behavioral factors on the a firm’s pricing and inventory decisions, and discuss their roles in various newly developed marketing strategies..This project will extend existing operations management research in the following ways. First, we will incorporate the game and the interaction among consumers into the choice models with strategic consumers; this will provide a new perspective for supply chain research. Second, we will propose some supply chain decision models with consumers’ strategically choosing among different product sources, to study the firms’ pricing and inventory decisions under various scenarios, such as capacity constraints and market segmentation. Third, we will develop some supply chain models with strategic consumers for some popular marketing strategies such as hunger marketing strategy, and demonstrate the role of the consumers’ strategic behaviours and other behavioral factors in these marketing strategies.

当前环境下，消费者战略选择行为具有以下三个特点。第一，消费者策略性加强，可以同时预期企业和其他消费者的行为。第二，消费者可以策略性地选择购买时机和产品渠道来源。第三，消费者除了考虑产品本身的质量、价格等因素，还考虑因社交需要、社会心理等带来的附加效用。.鉴于此，本项目将以消费者的战略选择为切入点，利用供应链决策模型研究消费者战略选择行为及各类社会心理因素对企业定价、库存等决策的影响，并以此探讨各种新兴营销策略的相关问题。.具体而言，本项目拟将对现有运营管理研究进行以下三方面拓展。首先，将消费者之间的博弈和交互引入到战略消费者选择模型中，重新审视先前供应链管理领域相关问题。其次，将消费者战略选择产品来源行为考虑到供应链决策模型中，研究产能限制、市场细分等情形下企业定价、库存等决策。再次，在饥饿营销等流行营销策略下考虑战略消费者，探讨消费者战略选择行为与各种社会心理效应在这些营销策略中的作用。

消费者战略选择行为，又称消费者策略性选择行为，是指消费者并非是不参与任何决策过程的被动价格接收者。相反，消费者会尽可能地整合信息，预期市场和其他消费者行为，在此基础上制定其最佳购买方案。消费者战略选择行为在生活中随处可见。因此，企业在进行定价、库存以及其他运营决策时，有必要考虑消费者战略选择行为。.本项目以消费者战略选择行为切入点，在市场营销和供应链运营管理交叉方向上展开了一系列研究，主要包括：（1）以现有全渠道零售实践为背景，在全渠道供应链框架下考虑消费者战略选择行为，通过构建相应数学模型分析了全渠道供应链定价、库存、物流配送以及退货等问题；（2）在共享经济背景下，探讨了消费者战略选择行为对制造商、零售商、平台等相关企业运营决策的影响；（3）在饥饿营销等流行营销策略下，探讨了消费者战略选择行为与各种社会心理效应在这些营销策略中的作用，为企业营销战略实施提供切实可行的建议；（4）在供应链框架下进一步分析了贝叶斯信息更新、随机风险偏好、高阶矩风险偏好、有限理性等行为对供应链决策及绩效的影响。本项目工作丰富了消费者行为和供应链管理交叉领域的研究，为供应链上下游企业合作运营提供了一些决策参考。.截至目前，标注本项目资助的已发表（含在线发表）的期刊论文数量为9篇，其中SSCI/SCI源刊8篇。从论文质量上看，有7篇论文发表在中国科学技术大学管理学院认定期刊目录A和B+期刊上，包括Production and Operations Management、Decision Sciences、Naval Research Logistics等权威期刊。项目组学生成员中3名博士生因毕业离开项目组，3名硕士生成员已转博，新入的1名硕士生计划转博。项目组成员积极参加各类学术交流活动。