基于地理环境遥感监测的喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫疫源地空间分布与预测研究

Plague is a kind of natural focal infectious disease which caused by Yersinia pestis with high lethal character. It has caused great harm to human beings in the history, and it was classified as category A infectious disease management in China. Since 1990s, plague epidemic was rising and some resting foci of plague re-active, so plague prevention and control is critical. The current plague foci monitoring technology and zoning scheme cannot meet the foci monitoring and management, and spatial information technology such as remote sensing and geographic information systems have the ability of obtaining wide range surface parameters quickly and realizing spatial analysis for complex geographic information, which can be applied to plague foci environmental monitoring guidance and forecast. The outbreak, prevalence and incubationl of plague is closely related to geographical ecological environment of specific area, so it can be researched by using remote sensing spatial information technology for the spatial distribution of the plague foci. Through the remote sensing monitoring of the main geographic environment factors of plague host animals, it is of great significance for the prevention and control of plague for the spatial distribution analysis and forecasting of the plague foci. Himalayan marmot plague foci of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the largest area of plague foci in China and one of the most active foci currently, so the foci was chose as study area. Our research will dedicate to reveal the relationship between the plague foci and geographical environment factors, and research the suitable geographical environment characteristics of the main host animal Himalayan marmot in the plague foci. Then, we will try to establish the geographical environment factor data set of the plague foci based on multi-source remote sensing data. Furthermore, we will use remote sensing technology to monitor the dynamic change trend of the plague foci, and combine the ecological niche model with the main host animal in the plague foci, to achieve Himalayan marmot plague foci division by regional natural characteristics breaking through the county as foci unit, which providing the basis and technical support for plague prevention and control organizations.

鼠疫是由鼠疫杆菌所致的一种致死性极高的自然疫源性传染病，历史上曾给人类造成极大危害，我国将其列为甲类传染病管理。鼠疫的暴发、流行、潜伏均与特定区域的地理环境密切相关，因此可以利用遥感等空间信息技术进行鼠疫疫源地的空间分布研究。通过对鼠疫宿主动物的主要地理环境要素进行遥感监测分析，以及疫源地的空间分布预测对于鼠疫防控具有重要意义。本研究以目前鼠疫疫情最为活跃的喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫疫源地为研究区，致力于揭示该鼠疫疫源地与地理环境要素之间的关系，研究疫源地内主要宿主动物喜马拉雅旱獭的适宜地理环境特征；建立基于多源遥感数据的疫源地地理环境要素数据集；并利用遥感技术监测鼠疫疫源地动态变化趋势，结合疫源地主要宿主动物的生态生境模型，实现按自然区域特征进行鼠疫疫源地的划分，为鼠疫防控机构提供决策依据与技术支持。

近年来，自然疫源性疾病对人类健康的威胁越来越严重，并对社会经济发展造成重大影响。青藏高原喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫疫源地是目前我国动物和人间鼠疫疫情最为活跃的自然疫源地之一，给人类健康和生产活动带来严重威胁。目前这一区域从事鼠防工作人员严重不足且监测方式和手段相对落后，远无法满足疫源地的空间分布监测。本研究基于遥感技术和地理信息系统进行疫源地的地理景观反演以及鼠疫的环境风险探测研究，取得的主要成果如下：(1)基于鼠疫监测机构提供和野外实地调研获取的鼠疫宿主动物数据，利用GARP生态位模型，结合GIS空间分析方法，得到预测概率为80%-100％的区域是喜马拉雅旱獭最可能的分布区；(2)利用STRM、MODIS以及典型区的RapidEye高分辨率影像等多源遥感数据进行疫源地的地理景观特征遥感反演，构建鼠疫地理景观遥感要素集；(3)结合Maxment最大熵模型和ArcGIS软件工具进行乌兰县鼠疫疫源地的时空分布预测，并进行疫源地的环境风险要素空间探测，研究发现年均归一化植被指数、土地覆盖、高程对于喜马拉雅旱獭的空间分布影响最为重要，贡献百分率分别为51.6%，21.7%和12.4%。本研究成果可以为该区域鼠疫防治机构开展疫源地监测提供决策依据，并可为其他类型的鼠疫疫源地研究提供参考。