风险对跨期决策过程的影响机制--基于眼动追踪研究的证据

The rapidly developing society raises unprecedented challenges to human, that is, how to make tradeoffs between benefits and costs that occur immediately or in the future in a risky environment. Results from recent research indicated that the evaluation of decision alternatives is largely accounted for by the associated cognitive processes. However, the relationship between decision processes and the subsequent choice preference is still unclear; nor do we know is it possible to change behavior by manipulating different processes in risky intertemporal decision-making. The present project presumes that the attentional process can directly affect choice preference in risky intertemporal decision-making. We propose to utilize the eye-tracking technology and elaborates three studies to test the hypotheses. First, following the logic from behavioral phenomenon (study 1) to process characteristics (study 2) exploration, we will conduct a series of in-depth studies to examine the impact of risk on the decision processes and the behavioral readouts of intertemporal decision-making. Then we will employ a combined eye-tracking and computational modeling approach to further disentangle the relationship between process and behavior, and uncover the cognitive mechanism of how process contributes to behavior. Finally, we seek to manipulate decision process to alter choice preferences (study 3) to establish the causal pathway from process to behavior. Therefore, we will be able to verify whether the choice preference in risky intertemporal decision-making is indeed driven by the account of attentional-based computation process. On the theoretical level, this project expects to provide converging evidence to shed light on a comprehensive and in-depth understanding of the impact of risk on intertemporal decision-making. On the application level, it will provide an effective process-based approach to manipulate behavior in risky intertemporal decision-making. As a result, it will potentially provide psychology support and advice on public policymaking.

面临社会日新月异的发展变化，如何在充满风险的环境中进行跨期决策，权衡当下和将来的利弊，给人类的生存发展带来巨大挑战。新近研究揭示，决策过程可直接影响人们对选项的评估。但在包含风险时，跨期决策的过程与行为有何关系，能否通过操纵过程改变人们的选择偏好，尚不得知。本项目认为，基于注意的决策过程可直接影响风险条件下跨期决策的行为偏好。因此，我们拟使用眼动追踪技术检验该假设：按照从行为特征(研究一)到过程特征(研究二)的逻辑，深入考察风险对跨期决策的行为和过程影响，并将眼动数据纳入计算建模，探索过程与行为的关系和作用机制。随后，通过操纵过程改变行为(研究三)，揭示过程与选择偏好的因果关系，以验证决策过程的影响机制。期望本项目可为深入理解风险对跨期决策影响的过程机制提供基于行为和过程的汇聚性证据，并为有效改变风险条件下的跨期决策行为提供基于决策过程的实际操作方法，为相关公共政策制定等提供心理学的建议。

面临社会日新月异的发展变化，如何在充满风险的环境中进行跨期决策，权衡当下和将来的利弊，给人类的生存发展带来巨大挑战。我们推测，基于注意的决策过程可影响风险条件下跨期决策的行为。本项目按照计划书执行，采用实验室研究、眼动实验等方法，分别在行为特征和过程特征上深入考察风险对跨期决策的影响，最后通过操纵过程改变行为，揭示过程与选择偏好的因果关系，以验证决策过程的影响机制。.首先，我们采用实验室实验考察风险对跨期决策偏好的影响，并检验了生活中一些常见的风险-跨期决策的行为特征，探索了相关决策任务中重要的情境和个体差异变量。发现：中等概率的风险因素可导致跨期决策的即刻效应消失；命令性规范和性别规范对生活中的风险跨期决策，即吸烟的态度和行为具有较强预测作用；在不同的概率水平和选项期望值有差异的条件下，去除风险选项的零结果可消除框架效应，而去除非零结果可增大框架效应；竞争失利可增加高神经质个体的风险寻求倾向。其次，我们使用眼动追踪技术探索风险对跨期决策影响的过程特征，并结合分层贝叶斯计算建模等分析技术揭示决策的过程机制。发现：个体对风险信息的注意偏好可预测人们在风险-跨期决策中的行为偏好；风险决策和跨期决策在行为特征层面、加工深度和方向属性方面存在相似之处，认知过程都更符合非折扣模型的假设，但两者的整体动态的眼动过程存在差异；通过计算建模的手段，将眼动指标加入决策模型中，可有效解释风险决策的零效应；区分“有即刻”和“无即刻”条件拟合跨期决策数据可得到更优模型，且情绪对“有即刻”和“无即刻”的跨期决策存在分离效应；基于主观价值计算的跨期决策的认知过程会更多地引发基于属性而非基于选项的信息搜索。最后，我们对眼动操纵的基本方法进行了系统梳理，对并结合眼动数据基于机器学习的方法来建立决策自动化预测系统。发现：目前的眼动操纵研究可分为外源性操纵和注视追随操纵两大类；将机器学习和眼动追踪技术结合，利用眼动追踪数据可有效预测风险、跨期选择偏好。.项目执行至今，共发表受本项目资助的期刊论文13篇（SCI/SSCI索引10篇，CSCD论文3篇），国际会议摘要2篇，国内会议摘要4篇，在此项目基础上获批省级基金1项。项目成果可加深对风险-跨期决策的过程机制的理解，为相关公共政策制定等提供心理学的建议。