基于能值理论与博弈论的水权交易价格形成机制研究

Water right trading price is an important part of the operation of water market. In recent years, full use of market mechanisms to allocate water resources is encouraged, and water right trading and water marker is urged to implement. However, it is obviously insufficient for the water rights trading price formation mechanism. It is lack of relationship among transaction costs, taxes, and reasonable returns. Aiming at the key scientific issues of the imperfect formation mechanism of water rights trading price, the topic is conducted. The main factors influencing water rights trading price are analyzed. The response relationship between the trading price of water rights and the value of water resources is revealed. Based on emergy analysis model，it is provides that the analysis method for emergy evaluation of ecological economic value of water rights trading. The water rights trading game model is established. The key influencing factors were identified and extracted, and coordinated relationships among transaction costs, taxes, and reasonable returns were evaluated quantitatively. Water rights trading price measurement method is established. At last, through case studies in the study area, a scientific and reasonable water rights trading price formation mechanism is proposed. This research has great potential of innovation in the researches of coordinated relationships among transaction costs, taxes, and reasonable returns, and water rights trading price measurement model based on energy theory and game theory. Besides, water rights trading price formation mechanism is perfected, which would provide important support for the cultivation and improvement of China's water market.

水权交易价格的确定是水市场运作的重要因素。近年来我国鼓励充分运用市场机制配置水资源，实施水权交易，但水权交易价格形成机制研究明显不足，缺乏交易成本、税金和合理收益的响应关系研究。本项目拟针对水权交易价格形成机制不完善的突出关键科学问题，分析影响水权交易价格的主要因素，揭示水权交易价格与水资源价值之间的响应关系，引入水资源价值能值分析模型确定水权交易双方生态经济价值，构建水权交易博弈模型，识别并提取关键影响因子，定量评价交易成本、税金和合理收益三者之间的勾稽关系，建立水权交易价格测算方法，并通过研究区案例分析，提出科学合理的水权交易价格形成机制。项目将在揭示水权交易成本、税金和合理收益之间的勾稽关系，以及构建基于能值理论和博弈论的水权交易价格测算模型方面进行创新，完善水权交易价格形成机制，为我国水市场的培育与完善提供重要的支撑。

针对我国水权交易价格与价值不符的问题，基于能值理论与博弈论，揭示了水权交易价格与水资源价值之间的响应关系，建立水权交易价格测算方法。主要研究结果包括：（1）引入价值流理论，对区域间、行业间、用水户间等不同水权交易类型交易过程中水资源价值的形成、转移、交换以及增值过程进行了分析，揭示了交易成本、税金和合理收益的勾稽关系，为不同类型水权交易价格的确定奠定了理论基础。（2）以农业节水向工业水权交易为研究对象，以水权交易出让方及受让方水资源生态经济系统为研究单元，构建了水权交易双方水资源生态经济价值的能值评估核算方法。（3）结合供水成本以及税金提出水权交易基础价格区间，其中最低价格为水权出让方合理收益、交易成本以及税金之和，最高价格为水权受让方合理收益。构建了市场对水权交易价格的影响因素指标集包括水资源的稀缺程度、社会经济发展水平、价格敏感度以及政策倾斜程度等，基于贝叶斯纳什均衡理论，构建水权交易合作博弈模型，提出了市场化水权交易价格的测算方法。（4）以内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市为实例，确定鄂尔多斯市水权交易基础交易价格区间为[1.28，3.5]。按25年计算，鄂尔多斯市水权交易市场下交易价格为51.5元/m3。本项目研究成果丰富了水权水市场研究理论，可为区域水权交易的进一步实施提供科学依据。