贫困地区农户食物安全影响因素与时空演变格局----以江西省38个贫困县为例

Food insecurity, especially those social vulnerable groups in poor county, is still a major global concern. Although food availability in China has been significantly improved nowadays, there still remain some problems concerning food security in poverty-stricken counties. Factor analysis will be used to explain the characteristics of food insecurity on rural household on the basis of case studies in poverty-stricken counties of Jiangxi and the observed variables statistics data of rural food security. Furthermore, cluster analysis will be used to classify the type of food security in order to understand the mechanism of food security based on the different characteristics of food insecurity. We will improve assessment of dietary diversity, which closely followed the methods used in measurement of biodiversity, in order to reveal the correlation between poor household dietary diversity and food security. A Structural Equation Model will be built by systematic analysis of factors that influence food security, which can reflect the law of conduction and evolution mechanism of rural household’s food security in poverty-stricken counties of China. Spatial Analysis Function of GIS will be applied to analysis spatial pattern of food security in counties and rural household’s food security. Based on the methods of time series analysis and co-integration test, the farm households' response on food fluctuation in poverty-stricken counties will be analyzed. The proposal of strategies for sustainable development and food security in poverty-stricken counties will be conducive to solve the problems of people’s livelihood, develop theory of microcosmic food safety, and provide a firm foundation for strategy of food security in poverty-stricken counties.

虽然我国宏观食物安全已达较高水平，但贫困地区农户食物安全问题凸显。国内外日益关注弱势群体的食物安全，贫困农户食物安全是今后一段时间内我国食物安全的核心问题。以江西贫困县为研究对象，根据农户食物安全研究变量数据，运用因子分析法探讨农户食物安全障碍特征；根据农户食物安全障碍特征差异，运用聚类分析法划分食物安全类型，探讨成因机制。借鉴生物多样性测定方法，完善食物多样性评价，揭示贫困县农户食物多样性与食物安全的相关性。系统分析贫困县农户食物安全影响因素，建立贫困县农户食物安全影响因素结构方程模型，探讨贫困县农户食物安全影响效应传导规律。运用GIS空间分析功能分析江西贫困县县域与农户尺度食物安全的空间格局；运用协整检验等时间序列分析法分析贫困县农户食物安全波动与农户行为响应关系。提出贫困县农户食物安全可持续发展战略，有利于解决贫困县农民民生问题，丰富微观食物安全理论，为制定食物安全战略提供依据。

虽然我国宏观食物安全已达较高水平，但贫困农户食物安全问题是现阶段食物安全的难点。通过抽样调查、食物多样性特征分析，江西部分贫困县农户生活水平与食物多样性有正相关性，生活水平较好与食物多样性较高的农户比例为22.53%，生活水平与食物多样性中等的农户比例为64.20%，生活水平较差与食物多样性较低的农户比例为13.27%。家庭人口与食物多样性有一定的关联性，基本上随着家庭人口的增加而食物多样性呈现提升的现象，但13人的家庭食物多样性有所下降，其中4-11人/户的家庭食物多样性较高，家庭人口较多或较少都不利益食物多样性提高。农户食物多样性聚类分析表明，约33%的农户食物多样性较为丰富，膳食结构较为合理，约5%的农户食物多样性较为贫乏，食物营养结构不尽合理。江西商品粮基地县食物生产能力与农村经济状况评价表明，吉泰盆地、赣抚平原、鄱阳湖平原位于赣江中下游，是江西省商品粮基地县食物生产与经济状况优势区域。鄱阳县粮食总产量、油料总产量、农村人口、耕地面积、农作物面积5个指标具有相对优势，属于资源充足型；南丰县粮食单产、人均总产值、单位面积总产值3个指标具有相对优势，属于效率、效益双优型；丰城市农业总产值、高安市肉类总产量具有相对优势，属于规模效益型；樟树市人均油料、峡江县人均粮食、新干县人均肉类具有相对优势，属于生活保障型；然而，上饶县人均总产值、单位面积总产值、单位面积用电量、人均粮食、人均肉类5个指标具有相对劣势，属于效率、效益偏低型；莲花县粮食总产量、耕地面积、农作物面积、农业总产值4个指标具有相对劣势，属于资源限制型；宜丰县油料总产量、单位面积总动力、人均油料3个指标具有相对劣势，属于结构失衡型。该研究成果可为精准扶贫及制定贫困地区食物安全战略提供依据。