基于森林城市构建的北京市生态绿地格局演变机制及预测预警研究

The construction of forest city is of great importance for ensuring the social harmony, the high efficiency of economy and the comfortability of ecology and dwelling. As the carrier of forest city, ecological green space, including forest eco-system and urban green open space system, possesses conclusive impacts on the land ecological environment. However, the soaring social economy and environmental disruption of Beijing have been a serious threat to the security of the ecological green space, therefore, the condition is not optimistic. It is quite an urgent task to promote the sustainability of the ecological green space and guide the construction of forest city via hazard warning and effective action taken for the security of ecological green space. From the perspective of the construction of forest city, the research will recognize the key elements from the ecological green space. Furthermore, based on the analysis of its evolvement mechanism, the research will establish ecological green space-social economy-environment compound system of Beijing. Powered by system dynamic (SD) model and cellular automation (CA) model which have the macroscopic and microcosmic advantages respectively, the research will set up the prediction model and hazard warning system for ecological green space. It will also propose a variety of patterns to optimize the ecological green space, conduct scenario simulation as well as hazard warning analysis in seek of a development pattern of the ecological green space in Beijing where the compound system develops coordinately. What’s more, the result will be the guidance when planning ecological green space and making locational choice of Beijing so as to regulate and control dynamically.

森林城市构建对于保障社会和谐、经济高效、生态宜人、居住舒适具有重要意义。由森林生态系统和城市绿地系统共同构成的生态绿地作为森林城市的建设载体对陆地生态环境有决定性影响。北京市社会经济发展和环境破坏严重威胁着生态绿地安全，其安全境况不容乐观。通过对北京市生态绿地预测预警，进而及时提出有效措施提升生态绿地生态安全，对促进其生态绿地的可持续发展、引导森林城市建设十分紧迫。研究在森林城市建设视角下，对生态绿地关键要素识别，并在剖析其演变机制基础上，建立北京市生态绿地—社会经济—环境复合系统。运用系统动力学模型（SD）在宏观因素反映上的优势和元胞自动机模型（CA）在微观空间反映上的优势构建北京市生态绿地预测模型，建立生态绿地安全预警体系。并提出多种优化生态绿地发展的模式进行情景模拟和预警分析，寻求在复合系统协调发展情景下的北京市生态绿地发展格局，指导北京生态绿地规划方案制定和区位选择，实现动态调控。

研究通过对北京市生态绿地预测预警研究，进而及时提出有效措施提升生态绿地生态安全，从而促进生态绿地的可持续发展以及引导森林城市建设。研究在森林城市建设视角下，针对北京市中心城区、第二道绿化隔离地区、大兴新机场临空经济区、通州行政副中心以及海淀区五大典型区域，以各个区域的生态空间优化预测为核心，对生态绿地关键要素识别，围绕多尺度生态空间的“演变评估—应用示范—优化预测”流程一体化展开。研究成果以北京多尺度生态空间格局演变机制评估为基础，剖析其演变机制，针对城乡绿地生态空间功能优化和格局优化两方面开展示范应用，提出五大典型区域生态空间的多种优化生态绿地发展模式，并进行情景模拟和预警分析，寻求在复合系统协调发展情景下的北京市生态绿地发展格局，指导北京生态绿地规划方案制定和区位选择，实现北京城市发展的动态调控。