基于边际理论的城市住宅运行能耗模拟与控制标准研究

The urban residential operating energy consumption is an important part of the total building energy consumption, whose change is mostly affected by the household population characteristics and energy consumption behavior. Meanwhile, the control standards should also reflect the effective demand of household energy consumption. As the marginal utility theory is a classic theory in economics regarding demands, behavior and utilities of residents, applying such theory would analyze both shared and exclusive consumption behavior on the urban residential operating stage as well as define the state of both fixed and variable energy consumption in order to reveal the drive’s inner mechanism and varying pattern of the operating energy consumption. Therefore, this project studied on energy consumption control theory and standard by using marginal utility theory, whose content includes: ① the control mechanism of urban residential operating energy consumption based upon marginal utility theory; ② the operating energy consumption behavior and the state of north-western typical urban residences; ③ the varying pattern of urban residential operating energy consumption based upon marginal utility theory; ④ the control standards and its relevant countermeasures of operating energy consumption based upon marginal utility theory. This project can promote the construction and perfection of the control theory and standard system of residential energy consumption, which is accord with the requirement of discipline development. In addition, the effective application of research achievements can not only provide references and basis for achieving delicacy control of urban residential operating energy consumption, but also give theoretical guidance and decision-making support to solve the "unfair" phenomenon in terms of energy consumption among different social classes and the social contradictions.

城市住宅运行能耗是建筑总能耗的重要组成部分，其变化主要受家庭人口特征及能耗行为的影响，控制标准也应反映家庭能耗的有效需求。边际理论是经济学中分析居民需求、行为及其效用的经典理论，应用该理论能够分析城市住宅运行阶段的共享和独享两种能耗行为，界定固定能耗和变动能耗两种能耗性态，揭示运行能耗驱动的内在机理和变动规律。因此，本项目应用边际理论研究城市住宅运行能耗控制理论和标准，内容包括：①基于边际理论的城市住宅运行能耗控制机理；②西北典型城市住宅运行能耗行为与能耗性态；③基于边际理论的城市住宅运行能耗变动规律；④基于边际理论的城市住宅运行能耗控制标准及相关对策。本项目研究可以促进住宅能耗控制理论与标准体系的构建与完善，符合学科发展的要求；研究成果的有效应用，可以为实现城市住宅运行能耗的精细化控制提供基准和依据，为解决不同社会阶层在能源消费方面的“不公平”现象和社会矛盾提供理论指导和决策支持。

城市住宅能耗是碳排放产生的主要原因，也是建筑总能耗的重要组成部分，随着我国城市化进程不断加速，城市住宅能耗总量呈现出逐年高速增长的趋势，加强住宅能耗控制已经成为政府节能减排工作中的重点。边际理论是经济学中的经典理论，应用该理论能够分析住宅运行能耗驱动的内在机理，揭示运行能耗的变动规律。因此，本项目基于边际理论研究城市住宅运行阶段的能耗性态、驱动机理、变化规律和控制标准，主要创新点如下：.（1）研究住宅运行阶段基础能耗和可变能耗两种能耗性态，揭示城市住宅运行能耗变化的驱动机理。从理论上分析了住宅运行阶段基础能耗和可变能耗两种能耗性态，提出了边际能耗递减规律，即住宅运行能耗随着家庭人口规模增加而增加，但增量逐渐减小，而且，不同家庭人口年龄结构和代际关系，对边际能耗变动规律具有显著的影响。.（2）研究基于边际理论的住宅运行能耗控制机理和变动规律模拟函数，揭示城市住宅运行能耗的变动规律。应用统计推断方法，研究发现住宅运行阶段用水、用电、用气的基础部分和可变部分，应用蒙特卡洛仿真模型拟合构建了用水、用电、用气的拟合函数；根据住宅常住人口规模和代际结构，分析了家庭用水、用电、用气和居住能耗间接碳排放的边际变化路径；研究了城市住宅各功能区建筑面积增加对边际效用的影响，并选择典型户型计算了边际效用最大的住宅建筑面积。.（3）构建基于边际理论的城市住宅运行能耗控制标准，为实现住宅运行能耗的精细化控制提供基准和依据。分析家庭用水、电、气的统计状态迁移特征，计算统计分布的期望函数，得到了常住人口为1-6人时家庭用水、电、气的控制标准；对典型住宅居住面积进行优化，计算典型户型边际效用最大的采暖热负荷。.本项目研究有利于住宅建筑全寿命能耗控制理论和标准的制定，研究成果的有效应用，可以为促进城市住宅运行能耗的精细化控制，以及实现住宅运行能耗的社会公平提供理论指导和决策支持。