双低油菜生产灰色系统全程管理研究

China is a major consumer as well as a major producer of rapeseed in the world. The previous researches mainly focused on the static and single technical studies on the traditional rapeseed production. In view of the fact that the current low erucic acid and low glucosinolate rapeseed production is in great need of a dynamic, systematic and quantitative management model to control its specific administration. This research, taking the Grey System Approach as the frame work, by applying the soft science meta-synthesis methodology, puts forward the double-low rapeseed (canola) production optimization strategies on the basis of a long-term empirical research and cases accumulation, i.e. the optimization of the grey system identification, diagnosis, modeling, intervention mapping parameters and index system. And it suggests to create the canola production grey system analysis, evaluation, prediction, decision making and control models, and reveals the dominant factors affecting the canola production (such as the climate, policy, science and technology, economic and other factors), and reveals their correlation with the traceability of the hazard analysis and critical control points so as to create a three-dimensional optimization model (excellent canola species-ecological environment-key technology) in which the best structure and function are realized, for people to master the rules of canola production with high yield and fine quality and learn the correlation between its production, supply and the market requirements to avoid the catastrophe risk. It is hoped that the findings of this research will provide theoretical basis and application support for the grey system monitoring and early warning whole-process management mode for the canola production so as to ensure its consumption security.

我国是世界油菜生产和消费大国，而以往侧重于常规油菜生产静态的、单一的技术研究。选题针对当前低芥酸、低硫甙油菜生产特定管理，急需动态的、系统的量化管理调控模型。基于长期实证调研和案例积累，运用软科学综合集成方法和灰色系统理论，优化双低油菜生产灰色系统识别、诊断、建模、干预的映射参数和指标体系。创建双低油菜生产影响因素灰色评估模型，揭示气候、政策、科技、经济等因素对双低油菜生产作用的主次特征、优劣关系和关联程度；创建双低油菜生产丰歉产量灰色预测模型，揭示生产供给、市场需求、灾变风险和高产多抗规律；创建双低油菜生产轻型高效灰色决策模型，揭示优良品种-生态环境-关键技术三维最佳结构功能；创建双低油菜生产质量安全灰色控制模型，揭示可追溯的危害分析及关键控制点。从而，构建双低油菜生产灰色系统监测预警全程管理模式，提出我国双低油菜生产发展对策和政策建议，为保障双低油菜消费安全提供理论依据及应用性支持。

面向油菜大国，对接国家农业绿色高产高效生产和油菜大省发展需求，项目通过学科交叉融合和试验示范推广，应用软科学综合集成方法和灰色系统理论，集自然科学、社会科学和工程技术于一体，获得省部级科技成果奖。（1）双低油菜生产影响因素综合评估研究。创建双低油菜生产品种推广综合评估模型、轻简栽培综合评估模型、产量结构综合评估模型、多元因素综合评估模型，量化双低油菜生产优劣主次关联程度，揭示关键特征，明确主导作用。（2）双低油菜生产灾害风险绿色防控研究。创建灾害风险保险模型和绿色防控技术模型，揭示双低油菜生产干旱、盐害胁迫、有害生物等灾害风险绿色防控规律，明确保险、品种、技术干预策略。（3）双低油菜绿色高效生产技术模式研究。主持双低油菜生产新品种新技术推广应用、双低油菜轻简化高效生产技术开发、双低油菜全程机械化高效生产技术示范与推广、绿色食品双低油菜生产技术规程、双低油菜绿色高效生产技术、抗灾节本增效技术、富硒富锌技术、免耕技术示范推广。（4）双低油菜生产信息化培育新动能研究。开发基于HSV空间颜色直方图的油菜叶片缺素诊断新方法，寻找双低油菜生产实时实地图像信息采集处理新途径，开辟双低油菜生产智能升级新引擎，促进智慧农业、互联网农业、共享农业发展。（5）双低油菜生产供给侧结构性改革研究。构建双低油菜重点产业产品链、品牌价值链、平台基地链、人才团队链、项目成果链、推广服务链、健康消费链协同体系，提出双低油菜生产高质量发展对策建议。（6）产教融合卓越人才培养模式研究。深度融入经济、管理、生命、信息、农学、涉农和泛农学科，发掘新增长极，构建复合应用型高层次人才培养模式。为引领绿色增产、优质高效、资源节约、生态环保、质量安全、功能农业提供双低油菜重点产业范式、样本、方案、业态、案例和智库，对于指导实施国家粮油安全战略、乡村振兴战略和健康中国战略具有重要理论、实践、现实科学意义和应用价值。