水资源承载能力量化途径的扩展研究－基于水资源资产负债表编制

Water resources carrying capacity reveals different degrees of pressure exerted by economy and society. There are some obvious flaws in traditional accounting system in matters of reflecting the relationship between economy and environment, greatly affecting the availability of water resources carrying capacity to measure sustainable development. Based on water resources balance sheet, this subject combines water resources management system and accounting system in our country with advanced international experiences. The basic concept, connotation and function of water resources balance sheet are clarified and the defects of traditional national economic accounting system are improved with prototype design of the sheet and water pricing technology. The link between water resources balance sheet and water resources carrying capacity is established by the compilation of water resources balance sheet which meets the actual needs of water resources management in China. The boundary conditions and the key indicators threshold value are defined for response to pressure load of water resources. The study explores ways to quantify the water resources carrying capacity and develops the methodology of evaluating water resources carrying capacity.

水资源承载能力大小揭示经济社会给水资源施加的不同程度的压力。由于传统核算体系在反映经济与环境的关系方面存在着明显的缺陷，极大影响了水资源承载力在衡量可持续发展方面的有效性。本课题从水资源资产负债表编制入手，借鉴国际先进经验，结合我国水资源管理制度和核算体系，厘清水资源资产负债表的基本概念、内涵及功能定位，研究负债表原型设计和水价值化技术，对传统的国民经济核算体系的缺陷进行改进和完善，探索编制符合我国水资源管理实际需求的水资源资产负债表，建立水资源负债表与水资源承载力之间的链接关系，明确水资源对压力负荷响应的边界条件和关键指标阈值，扩展水资源承载力量化途径，发展水资源承载力评价的方法论。

研究水资源资产负债表，建立其与水资源承载力之间的链接关系，对水资源承载力量化方法优化、水资源管理及策略制定具有重要意义。本项目通过分析水资源在自然和社会中的循环转化规律，明确界定了水资源资产、水资源负债等核心概念，构建了水资源资产的基本框架、帐户体系和基本表式，结合我国水资源环境经济核算成果，编制了符合我国水资源管理实际需求的水资源资产负债表，并以成都市为研究区域进行试算，探讨了水资源承载力评价的边界条件和关键阈值。结果表明，用“三条红线”作为衡量水资源是否负债的标准，可以有效解决水资源核算的控制指标问题。基于能值分析法、影子价格法对成都市水资源价值量进行综合核算，结果表明成都市水资源能值利用强度以及人均水资源能值用量逐年减小，与其经济发展水平不相匹配，水资源压力巨大，阻碍了系统的可持续发展。通过考虑经济社会对水资源耗减是否产生负债将水资源负债表和承载力相结合，较传统的方法更能反映水资源承载能力的内涵，体现可持续发展理论，结果合理且更合乎实际。