不同空间尺度的人口流动对登革热传播的驱动作用及其机制研究

Dengue fever (DF) is a serious public health concern in China. Identifying the crucial driver and mechanism is the basis for precise prevention and control of DF transmission. Our previous studies, including: the impaction of imported cases on DF prevalence, the transmission trend of DF from Pearl River Delta to other parts of Guangdong province during holidays and the transmission risk between streets/districts, have indicated that population migration at different spatial scales might be the key driving force of DF transmission. To test the hypothesis, we will select Guangdong province as the research site, which is an epidemic area with a high DF incidence. The data, including DF incidence, mosquito, population movement, meteorology, environment and socio-economy, will be collected from surveillance system, website, flight information, yearbook, remote-sensing information and epidemiological survey. These data will be organized in three spatial scales, i.e., large scale (between Southeast Asia and Guangdong province), medium scale (between cities) and small scale(between streets/districts). DF transmission model (with population migration as the key factor) under the above different spatial scales will be established by dynamic model, meta-population model and time-series model. By using these models, we can fit the space-time diffusion process , analyze the transmission risk, and clarify the driving force and mechanism of population movement on DF transmission at different spatial scales. The results of this study will provide scientific evidence to optimize strategies and measures of DF prevention and control.

登革热是威胁我国人群健康的一个重大公共卫生问题。明确登革热传播的关键驱动力及机制是科学防控的基础，我们前期开展了国外输入病例对登革热发生的影响、节假日珠三角地区登革热向粤东西北扩散以及街道/镇之间登革热传播风险等研究，这些研究提示：在不同空间尺度的人口流动可能是登革热传播的重要驱动力。为了验证该假设，本课题拟以登革热高发疫区广东省为研究点，通过监测系统、网站、航班信息、年鉴、遥感以及流行病学调查收集大（东南亚国家与广东之间）、中（城市之间）、小（街道/镇之间）三个空间尺度下登革热发病、蚊媒、人口流动、气象、环境、社会经济等数据，采用动力学模型、复合种群模型和时间序列模型等方法，以人口流动为核心建立三个空间尺度下的登革热传播模型，拟合登革热的时空扩散过程，分析疫情扩散规律和传播风险，从而阐明三个空间尺度下的人口流动对登革热传播的驱动作用及其机制，结果可为优化登革热防控策略和措施提供科学依据。

登革热是危害我国人群健的一个重要的公共卫生问题，明确其传播驱动力和机制可以为科学防控提供理论依据。本研究对大（东南亚国家与广东）、中（城市/县区之间）、小（街道/镇之间）三种空间尺度下的人口流动与广东登革热传播机制进行分析，发现不同尺度下的人口流动均会对登革热疫情产生影响：大尺度下，人口流动对广东省本地登革热传播起着重要的驱动作用，是本地疫情暴发的导火线；中尺度下，各城市间人口流动会促使登革热向其他城市扩散和传播，且逗留时间的长短会影响本地登革热的暴发流行；区县和街道尺度下，人口流动在较大程度上导致疫情区域出现耦合，人口密度大和社会环境较差的地区聚集风险较高；同时，本研究构建了基于气象、蚊媒密度、人口流动和网络大数据等多源数据的登革热预测模型，为登革热早期预测预警提供科学依据，也为登革热暴发疫情现场防控提供科技支撑。