重大水利工程复合水环境滑坡动力灾变机理与预测模型研究

The landslide induced by reservoir construction is of the great potential destructive and disastrous just due to the important role of major water conservancy engineering and the special regional geological and water environment condition. Particularly, the mechanisim of the larger scale catastrophe landslides induced by the special regional compound water environment and their prediction have been becoming the focus in the landslide research field. As far as the problem is concerned, this research program, based on the basic principle of water environment dynamics, takes the compound water dynamic change caused by rainfall, reservoir water and underground water and the displacement response to the water dynamics as the landslide dynamics origin and destabilized criterion, and then completes the comprehensive monitoring, testing and coupled research on the compound seepage dynamic impacts, displacement response pattern and its stability evolutional catastrophe pattern by means of the System Engineering Method coupled with water and rock. Through the systematic research on the quantitative relationship of compound seepage dynamic impacts with the displacement responses and stability evolutional pattern of landslide, the dynamic catastrophe prediction model and parameters based on the landslide catastrophe and destabilized mechanism under the condition of the compound water environments can be determined and established, which can be as the theoretical basis for the large scale landslides prediction and control in the Three Gorge reservoir region or in any major water conservancy projects with the similar water environment conditions.

重大水利工程特定的工程特点及特殊的区域地质与水环境条件决定了水库型滑坡具有潜在巨大的破坏性、灾害性，特别是重大水利工程区域复合水环境所诱发的重大灾变滑坡失稳机理及其预测预报已成为滑坡研究领域的关注焦点。针对上述问题，本项目根据水环境动力作用原理，运用水岩耦合系统工程方法，将水库型滑坡库水、降雨与地下水所形成的复合水环境动力变化及其位移动力响应作为其稳定性演化与灾变的动因与判识标准，对不同复合水环境加载条件下的渗流综合动力效应与位移响应规律及其与稳定性灾变关系进行综合监测、试验与交叉耦合计算与研究，研究和探索复合渗流场综合加载动力效应与滑坡位移动力响应及其稳定性演化的定量关系，确定复合水环境变化下滑坡灾变过程与失稳机理的动力学评价参数和渗流动力灾变预测模型，为三峡工程库区以及类似水环境重大水利工程库岸滑坡的预测与防治提供理论依据。

本项目根据水库型堆积层滑坡的变形与失稳的动因与机理，将复合水环境动力系统-滑坡重力演化系统-预测预报方法视为一个完整滑坡水岩系统工程对滑坡的稳定性进行多学科的交叉耦合研究与评价。将降雨、库水及地下水所形成的复合渗流场加载弱化动力变化过程作为完整的加载动力过程，将滑坡的动力位移响应特征与变化规律作为对其稳定性演化与灾变规律的评价指标与判别准则，将不同复合水环境作用条件下的渗流综合动力灾变效应与位移响应规律及其稳定性灾变关系进行综合监测、试验与交叉耦合研究与评价，研究和确定了复合水环境综合动力灾变效应与滑坡动力位移响应及其稳定性演化灾变规律的定量关系。以上述成果为基础，研究和建立了以复合地下水位变化为加载动力参数，以位移速率或加速率变化为位移响应参数，以复合地下水动力加载与位移响应耦合动力参数为滑坡监测预警评价参数，以该类滑坡灾变机理与位移规律为建模基础和依据的位移动力监测预警模型与评价方法体系。该位移动力监测预警模型与评价方法不仅为有效解决重大水利工程水库型滑坡在复合地下水渗流场条件下其边坡稳定性预测预报与防治提供了理论依据，而且对三峡工程库区滑坡及类似水环境条件大型水利工程库区滑坡的科学预测与防治将具有十分重要的理论价值和现实意义。