烟草种植替代的影响因素及其环境经济效应---以湖北恩施烟区为例

In the face the dual pressures of the implementation of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and of promoting the economic development of poor tobacco-growing areas, tobacco planting substitution has become an inevitable choice for some tobacco areas in China. Based on the literature review and the field surveys, this project takes the Enshi tobacco-growing area in Hubei as a typical area, analyze the status of tobacco cultivation and tobacco farmer's planting alternative willingness of tobacco farmers. Based on socio-economic statistics and household survey data, Nested Multinoimal Logit Model (NMLM) was used to quantitatively analyze the main influencing factors of tobacco planting substitution. According to the natural conditions of tobacco growing area and the livelihood preference of tobacco farmers, three to four kinds of tobacco planting alternatives will be put forward. In terms of different stakeholders of tobacco industry, the economic and environmental effects of these alternatives will be analyzed quantitatively, of which the economic effects will mainly consider national taxes, local government finance, tobacco business workers and tobacco farmers' income. The environmental effects of these alternatives will include soil quality and soil erosion changes. Key difficulties in the tobacco plantation substitution will be identified and corresponding solutions and suggestions will be put forward. The finding of this can provide reasonable suggestions for the moderate cultivation of tobacco in typical tobacco growing areas, and provide scientific basis for the progressive implementation of international conventions in China.

面对履行世界卫生组织《烟草控制框架公约》和促进贫困烟区经济发展的双重压力，烟草种植替代已成为我国部分烟区的必然选择。本项目在文献调研和实地调查的基础上，选择湖北恩施烟区为典型区，对其烟草种植现状及烟农的烟草种植替代意愿进行分析；基于社会经济统计资料和农户调查数据，采用嵌套多项Logit模型（NMLM）定量识别烟草种植替代的主要影响因素；根据烟区自然条件和烟农的生计偏好，提出3-4种烟草种植替代方案，针对烟草业不同利益相关者，从经济、环境等方面定量分析这些方案的综合效应，其中经济效应主要考虑国家税收、地方政府财政、烟草企业工人及烟农收入，环境效应主要考虑植烟地土壤质量变化和烟草种植替代后水土流失变化；辨识烟区烟草种植替代面临的关键困难并提出相应的解决措施和建议。研究成果可为典型烟区烟草适度种植规模提供合理化建议，为我国循序渐进履行国际公约提供科学依据.

目前烟叶的全球生产量已经超过全球实际烟草消耗量，烟草控制与烟草种植替代已经成为烟区发展的必然趋势。但烟草业在我国经济发展尤其是烟区地方经济发展中具有举足轻重的地位，烟草税收占全国税收总额的7.4%左右，烟区地方政府财政收入的20%~60%来自于烟草业，一般烟农家庭收入的80%来自烟草种植所得，包括烟草种植替代在内的烟草业政策的任何调整都会对我国烟区经济发展、烟草企业职工及烟农的生计等产生巨大影响。因此，在实施任何烟草种植替代措施之前，定量研究烟草种植替代的影响因素及其综合效应，不仅会减缓烟草种植替代对烟草业各利益相关者的负面影响，也对我国烟草业的适度发展、有序履行国际控烟公约具有指导意义，同时这也是土地利用科学、农村发展经济学以及乡村地理学中新的重要研究内容。. 本项目基于对湖北主要烟草种植区（恩施烟区）的烟草种植现状及烟草种植替代意愿进行实地调查，分析烟区烟草种植替代影响因素、并定量研究烟区烟草种植替代不同情景下的综合效应等。首先采用问卷调查法，以面对面访谈的形式调研了烟农对于烟草种植替代行为的认知和意愿，引入计划行为理论，运用结构方程模型分析了收益认知、主观规范等因素对利川市烟农替代意愿的影响路径和影响程度。其次，项目利用双边界条件价值评估法CVM测量了研究区烟农的受偿意愿，并通过多元无序logit模型计算研究区烟农的最小受偿意愿，同时分析了性别、年龄等因素对烟农受偿意愿的影响程度。最后，对该地区实施烟草种植替代可能产生的经济效应和环境效应进行分析，通过综合评价法得出，种植玉米和中籼稻的经济效应较低，黄瓜、西红柿的经济效应较高；环境效应刚好相反，种植粮食作物的环境效应较高，种植蔬菜作物的环境效应较低；烟草、桔子、马铃薯的固碳能力较低；种植西红柿和黄瓜的综合效应最高，种植烟草的综合效应最低；烟草与马铃薯组合种植的综合效应最差，烟草与玉米、油菜籽的综合效应也较低，所以研究区应当优先选择种植黄瓜、西红柿来替代烟草种植，以获得更好的综合效应。