市场治理视角下既有建筑绿色改造多主体动力演化与耦合机理研究

The reason of slow development of the existing building green transformation is the lack of dynamic coupling of the main body, and it is rare of the research on dynamic evolution and coupling mechanism of multi-main body in existing building green reconstruction considering the main body organization complexity and the dual role of government, taking resources, energy capital and environmental costs into account from the perspective of market governance. On the basis of the structure, functional characteristics and function mechanism of the market subject, the demand evolution and law of behavior of the main body by combination of practical research and simulation are analyzed. Based on system dynamics and grounded theory, dynamic formation mechanism and evolution of the market are revealed. The dynamic transformation and evolution path of market leading body are discussed, and the main dynamic effect and feedback relationship are explored either. The revenue function of the main body is constructed, and the game of behavior strategy and dynamic development mechanism are discussed. Based on the theory on market governance and synergy, considering the complexity of organization, the research of the mechanism of multi-agent dynamic coupling and the way of realization of market potential is conducted. The metrics of the main power and coupling efficiency is designed and then the benefit evaluation system and quantitative methods on dynamic coupling drive are constructed. The market development strategies in different stages and different regions are proposed, driven by the dynamic driving force of the building green transformation. As a conclusion, from the perspective of market governance, the theoretical system of dynamic evolution and coupling mechanism of multi-main body in building green transformation is formed, enriching and perfecting the theory of market governance.

既有建筑绿色改造市场发展乏力，其根源在于主体动力耦合驱动不足。基于市场治理视角，考虑主体组织复杂性和政府双重角色、兼顾资源能源资本和环境成本的既有建筑绿色改造多主体动力演化与耦合机理研究尚属鲜见。从市场主体构成、功能特征与作用机理解析着手，实践调研与模拟仿真相结合，分析主体需求演变与行为规律；基于系统动力学与扎根理论，揭示主体动力形成与演化机理，探讨市场主导主体动力转化与演进路径，探究主体动力影响与反馈关联关系；架构主体动力作用的收益函数，剖析行为博弈策略与动态演进机理；基于市场治理与协同理论，考虑组织复杂性，研究基于市场位势的多主体动力耦合机理与实现途径；设计主体动力及耦合效益度量标准，构建基于动力耦合驱动的效益评价体系与量化方法；提出不同阶段、不同区域既有建筑绿色改造主体动力驱动的市场发展策略。形成市场治理视角下既有建筑绿色改造多主体动力演化与耦合机理理论体系，丰富与完善市场治理理论。

既有建筑绿色改造是落实五大发展理念、五位一体总体布局的建筑行动实践，是践行节能减排、“双碳目标”和建筑可持续发展的必由路径与重要举措。既有建筑绿色改造市场发展乏力，其根源在于主体动力耦合驱动不足。基于市场治理视角，考虑主体组织复杂性和政府双重角色，兼顾资源能源资本和环境成本，从市场主体构成、功能特征与作用机理解析着手，界定既有建筑绿色改造市场发展动力的政府引擎力、ESCO驱动力和业主内源动力三种核心形态，实践调研与模拟仿真相结合，阐释了多元主体利益诉求、需求演变与行为规律；基于系统动力学与扎根理论，进行影响因素重要性分析和关键路径识别，：揭示主体动力形成与演化实施机理与影响反馈关联关系，探讨了市场主导主体动力转化与演进路径，提出了引擎力、驱动力和内源动力形成的关键影响因素的运行优化路径；构建了多元主体动力作用过程的收益函数与多元主体博弈支付矩阵，剖析了多元主体行为博弈策略与动态演进机理，探究了多元主体动力动态系统的雅克比矩阵，通过数值模拟仿真分析，论证多元主体动力行为“合作”策略的系统到稳定形态与均衡策略；基于市场治理视角，依据参与式管理思想、内生发展理论和协同学理论，阐明既有建筑绿色改造多元主体动力作用涉及要素、聚力域、实施措施以及目标等四方面，探究了基于市场位势的多元主体动力耦合原理、实施机理与实现途径，解析了既有建筑绿色改造基于市场监督机制、基于市场激励机制、基于市场服务机制和基于市场参与机制的多元主体动力作用机理与实现路径；设计主体动力及耦合效益度量标准，构建基于动力耦合驱动、以市场驱动效果和社会综合效益为核心的效益评价体系与量化方法；提出不同阶段、不同区域既有建筑绿色改造ESCO驱动力作用优化、政府引擎力提升、业主内源动力发展的市场发展实施策略与对策。初步形成了既有建筑绿色改造多主体动力演化与耦合机理理论体系，丰富与完善了市场治理理论，提供既有建筑绿色改造市场治理理论支撑。