碳规制下基于多重冲突均衡的供应链碳排放转移机理及优化策略研究

Under the carbon regulation, study on the mechanism and optimization strategy of supply chain carbon emissions transfer based on the perspective of multiple equilibrium conflict, which provide an important foundation for promoting the development of low carbon supply chain and achieving carbon regulation. This project, on the basis of analyzing the multiple equilibrium conflict theoretically and defining the connotation of supply chain carbon emissions transfer scientifically, using the PLS-SEM etc method to analyze direct, indirect, response and feedback relationship between the supply chain multiple equilibrium conflict and supply chain carbon transfer, and refine its impact mechanism. Then, based on the game relationship analysis among supply chain carbon emissions transfer subject, the supply chain carbon emissions transfer subject evolutionary game model and supply chain carbon emissions transfer conduction network model is constructed under multiple equilibrium conflict, the formation and conduction mechanism of the supply chain carbon emissions transfer is refined clearly. Again, by building carbon emissions transfer optimization model embedded the effect of carbon emissions transfer based on the recognition of supply chain carbon emissions irrational transfer, the carbon transfer of supply chain optimization strategy is provided; Finally, suggestions to consummate the supply chain carbon emissions transfer policy is put forward under multiple equilibrium conflict. This project will not only be theoretical value of clarifing the mechanism of the supply chain carbon emissions transfer, but also be practical significance for developing reasonable supply chain carbon emissions transfer policy.

在碳规制下，基于多重冲突均衡视角提炼供应链碳排放转移机理、探寻供应链碳排放转移优化策略是推进供应链低碳发展、实现碳规制要求的重要基础。本项目在理论解析供应链多重冲突均衡、科学界定供应链碳排放转移内涵的基础上，综合应用PLS-SEM等方法研究供应链多重冲突均衡对碳排放转移的直接、间接、响应和反馈关系，提炼其影响机理；接着，基于供应链碳排放转移主体博弈关系分析，通过构建多重冲突均衡下供应链碳排放转移主体进化博弈模型及供应链碳排放转移传导网络模型，明确多重冲突均衡下供应链碳排放转移的形成与传导机理；再次，基于供应链碳排放非理性转移的识别，通过构建嵌入多重冲突均衡的供应链碳排放转移优化模型，提炼供应链碳排放转移优化策略；最后，提出多重冲突均衡下供应链碳排放转移政策保障体系的优化方案。本项目研究不但对厘清供应链碳排放转移机理有着重要的理论价值，而且对合理制定供应链碳排放转移政策也有重要的实践意义。

在碳规制下，厘清多重冲突均衡影响下供应链碳排放转移相关基础性科学问题是供应链低碳重构的基础，也是实现各主体预期减排目标的根本。本项目在可持续发展理论、供应链理论、博弈论等理论指导下，系统地研究了多重冲突均衡下供应链碳排放转移内涵、影响、形成与传导机理、优化调控机制及政策保障体系。研究表明：1.在有谎报情况下，无论单因子谎报还是双因子谎报，谎报因子均正向影响着供应链碳排放转移；但在谎报因子不同区间，对供应链产量、价格及利润等变量的影响差异较大；政府罚金有助于消除谎报所带来的影响。2.在无谎报情况下，技术滞后性与低碳偏好正向影响制造商碳排放转移水平，但对碳排放转移承接不影响；公平偏好程度的提高会降低供应商的碳减排率、但制造商互惠偏好系数则反向影响制造商碳排放转移量；低碳参考效应与互惠利他程度正向影响碳排放转移量，但与碳排放转移承接量无关。3.从供应链碳排放转移形成机理来看，当供应商的短缺量高于制造商的富余量时，供应商有碳排放转移的动机，而制造商没有接收碳排放转移的动机；当供应商的短缺量低于制造商的富余量时，供应商和制造商都有碳排放转移的动机；碳排放转移支付契约可以优化调控双方碳排放转移结构。3.从供应链碳排放转移传导机理来看，供应链碳排放转移的扩大效应与减排技术溢出效应对供应链利润影响趋势相同，但对供应链碳排放量的影响趋势相反，碳排放转移减排技术溢出效应有助于减少供应链碳排放量。4.从供应链碳排放转移优化调控来看，无论是否存在谎报行为供应链碳排放转移均存在一个非理性转移区间，但谎报情形下非理性转移区间较大；碳排放转移承接能力与碳排放转移成本均会导致供应链非理性转移区间的增大，但供应链产品减排量和消费者低碳意识强度则会负向影响供应链碳排放非理性转移区间；而线性补贴征罚契约则可以优化供应链非理性转移区间，可以减小非理性转移区间，有助于优化调控供应链碳排放转移结构。