城市住房租赁市场供求模式与运行机制研究

In a mature housing market, the housing rental market plays an important role, and more than 1/3 of urban residents rent house to solve living problems. China's urban housing rental market is not well-developed, and it’s necessary to improve the supply and demand model and operating mechanism. Therefore, this issue will take Beijing, Shenzhen and other typical cities as the research object. On the theoretical basis of housing demand, disequilibrium of housing market’s supply and demand, location theory, the qualitative characteristics analysis, Hedonic price model and system dynamics model will be comprehensive used to construct the analysis model of rental housing’s supply and demand, for the research of rental housing market’s supply and demand model and operation mechanism, from the aspect of the differences of regional development level, people’s income level and housing demand. Firstly, urban people with different needs are subdivided to analyze their demand, structure and scale of rental housing. Secondly, according to the different needs of the commercial and indemnificatory rental housing, the issue proposes the space layout, development pattern and the supply mechanism of the rental housing. Thirdly, the pricing mechanism of rental housing is analyzed to put forward the pricing standard methods. Finally, from the concept that the houses are used to live, long-term operation mode and mechanism of the urban housing rental market are constructed. The results of the study will enrich the theory of location theory, expand the theory of housing filtering, and provide scientific basis for the reform of housing system and the development of housing policy.

在成熟的住房市场中，住房租赁市场起着重要作用，1/3以上的城市居民通过租赁住房解决居住。我国城市住房租赁市场还很不发育，亟需健全其供求模式与运行机制。因此，本课题将以北京、深圳等典型城市为研究对象，基于住房引致需求、住房市场供求非均衡、区位论等理论，综合运用质性分析、特征价格和系统动力学等方法，构建租赁住房供需分析模型，从区域发展水平、人群收入水平及不同人群对住房需求等差异切入，研究住房租赁市场供需模式和运行机制。首先，对城市不同需求人群细分，分析其对租赁住房的需求意愿、结构和规模；其次，针对商品性和保障性租赁住房的不同需求，研究提出租赁住房的空间布局、开发模式和供给机制；再次，研究租赁住房的定价机制，提出定价标准和方法；最后，从“房子是用来住的”出发，构建城市住房租赁市场的长效运行模式和机制。研究成果，将丰富区位理论，拓展住房过滤理论；为深化我国住房制度改革，制定住房政策提供科学依据。

“建立多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度”已成为我国住房政策的发展方向。然而，当前我国住房租赁市场尚不成熟，供需错配矛盾突出，相关实证研究欠缺，亟需全面性、系统性地理解城市住房租赁市场供求模式与运行机制。基于此，本项目首先回顾并分析了我国城市住房租赁市场和相关住房政策的发展历程，进而比较借鉴了美国、德国、英国等典型发达国家住房租赁市场的经验。在此基础上，本项目以全国地级以上行政单元为基本研究范围，辅以北京作为具体案例城市，利用全国1%人口抽样调查、流动人口动态监测调查、房地产线上平台大数据、土地交易数据、相关单位提供数据、一手调研数据等多元化的数据来源，从需求、供给、定价三方面对我国城市住房租赁市场进行了深入的实证研究。研究内容包括：①全国320个城市以流动人口为代表的租赁住房需求群体对于住房质量、住房租购选择和租赁住房消费的需求；②全国287个城市租赁住房市场供给和保障性供给的面积、充足性、主导性和可支付性的时空格局和影响机制，以及北京内部租赁住房市场供给和保障性供给的空间布局；③中观、微观影响因素对北京市场租赁住房价格作用机制，在此基础上按照“区域定租，系数调整，租补分离”的原则构建了科学的租赁住房定价模型。最后，本研究基于文献分析和实地调研，探索了集体土地建设租赁住房模式为代表的“多主体供给、多渠道保障”城市住房租赁市场长效运行模式。研究成果对于丰富城市地理学关于城市住房市场时空分异、运行模式及影响机制的研究有理论价值，并能为深化我国住房制度改革、制定住房政策提供科学依据。