中国家庭金融的动态宏观方法分析

This project uses the dynamic macroeconomics approach to study decisions pertaining to household finance and their policy implications in China. We consider multiple-dimensional decisions related to household finance, including consumption/saving, asset allocation, health investment, medical expenditure, social insurance and pension. These decisions are mutually dependent,among which saving and asset allocation are the core. These decisions are also closely related to some key issues during the development and transition of the Chinese economy, hence have strong policy implications. The unique trait of this project is that it takes some China-specific market arrangements into account, fully utilizes currently available micro data, and employs advanced methodology and technique in macroeconomics to study different issues within a unified framework.The central issue of this project is to build, estimate and solve a lifecycle dynamic optimization model. As a key novelty in the project, we use the Simulated Method of Moments approach to estimate model parameters and test the reliability of the model. This approach helps our model closely match the data, and leads to more reliable predictions. Based on the estimated dynamic model, we will make predictions about the impacts of financial reform, medical reform and social security reform on household financial decisions.In addition, we will use the model to assess the interactions between household financial risks and the stability of macroeconomy.

本项目运用动态宏观的方法研究中国的家庭金融决策问题及其政策意涵。我们综合研究和家庭金融相关的多方面的决策，包括消费储蓄、资产配置、健康投资、医疗开支、保险养老等等。这些决策相互连结、其中最核心决策是储蓄和资产配置。这些决策都和中国经济发展中的一些核心问题息息相关，具有很强的政策意涵。项目的独特之处是充分使用中国现有的微观数据、运用动态宏观的前沿方法和技术、在一个统一的框架下量化地分析问题。本项目的核心内容是家庭生命周期动态优化模型的构建、估计和解析。本项目的关键创新之处是使用模拟矩估计法来对动态宏观模型进行参数估计和可信度检验，从而使得我们的模型能够和中国的微观数据高度拟合、并且使得模型的预测具有较高的可靠性。基于所建立的动态模型及其估计结果，我们将预测国家的金融体系改革、医疗保险体系改革和社会保障体系改革对家庭金融决策的影响，并且评估家庭金融风险和宏观经济稳定性之间的关系。

本项目运用动态宏观的方法研究中国的家庭金融决策问题及其政策意涵。我们综合研究和家庭金融相关的多方面的决策、特别着重于储蓄和资产配置决策。我们使用中国现有的微观数据、运用动态宏观的前沿方法和技术、在一个统一的框架下量化地分析问题。项目期间，我们完成了家庭生命周期动态优化模型的构建、估计和解析。运用若干个中国家庭问卷调查数据，我们使用模拟矩估计法对动态宏观模型进行参数估计和可信度检验。基于所建立的动态模型及其估计结果，以美国的家庭金融决策作为参照，我们综合分析了以下因素对中国家庭金融的影响：（1）金融市场的不完善；（2）社会保障体系的不完善；（3）中国人的时间偏好和风险偏好。我们的模型预测表明，如果中国的金融市场和社会保障体系得到完善，那么中国家庭会更多的投资风险资产，减少低风险资产和房地产的投资。这些研究成果对中国未来金融改革的方向以及金融风险的防范具有很强的借鉴意义。