供应链融资中信用保险决策与价值研究

Credit insurance can provide effective support for supply chain internal and external financing which are based on trade credit. However, the research on credit insurance for supply chain financing is still relatively scarce and theoretical guidance for practice is lacking. In this research, the current situation of credit insurance at home and abroad will be investigated and the mechanism of credit insurance supporting supply chain internal and external financing will be analyzed. Then, the game models of supply chain internal financing based on “trade credit” and mixed financing based on “trade credit + credit insurance policy” will be founded and the optimal operational, financial and insurance decisions will be derived after fully considering the agents’ risk attitudes. The values of credit insurance for improving the performance of supply chain internal and external financing will be analyzed and the impacts of the supplier and the bank’s risk attitudes, the initial capital levels of capital-constrained enterprises and the degree of market demand variability on the value of credit insurance will be examined. Reasonable sharing mechanism of insurance premium will be designed to coordinate the supply chain and the financing channel. Finally, case studies and empirical analysis will be conducted to verify theoretical results. From the research, the supply chain financing strategies with credit insurance can alleviate financial pressure for supply chain under capital constraints and provide a theoretical foundation and practical guidance for overall competitiveness improvement. The research can also provide new ideas for banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions to launch a new business and implement financial innovation.

信用保险能够为以贸易信用为主的供应链内外融资提供有效支持，但国内外学者对其的研究还比较少，目前的实践缺乏理论指导。本项目拟通过调查国内外信用保险的现状，分析其支持供应链内外融资的机理；构建基于信用保险的供应链“贸易信用”内部融资和“贸易信用+保单质押”内外混合融资博弈模型，在充分考虑各主体风险态度的基础上，求解最优运营、融资及保险决策；分析信用保险对改善供应链内外融资绩效的价值，研究供应商和银行的风险态度、资金约束企业的初始资金水平、市场需求变动程度等因素对信用保险价值的影响，并通过设计合理的保险费用分担机制实现供应链和融资渠道的协调；最后通过案例研究和实证分析对结论进行检验。本课题提出的基于信用保险的供应链内外融资策略，能够为资金约束的供应链缓解资金压力，提升整体竞争力提供理论依据和实践指导，也能为银行、保险公司等金融机构开展新业务，实施金融创新提供新思路。

由于市场的不确定性，供应链融资中存在一定程度的信用风险，而通过引入信用保险，会提升供应链融资的效率。本课题通过调查研究信用保险现状及供应链融资中的信用风险，发现供应链融资信用风险满足可保性的四个条件，在完全竞争的金融市场和精算公平的保险定价下，信用保险能实现对供应链融资的完美补充。然而，在不完备的金融市场中，资金约束企业的主观违约率、额外资产状况、破产成本、银行的风险厌恶程度等因素都会对供应链融资中信用保险决策与价值的影响。.课题首先构建博弈模型进行了理论研究。研究显示，在零售商面临资金约束的供应链延期付款内部融资中，信用保险除了激励供应商提高贸易信用额度之外，还能有效防止零售商的过度订货行为。在供应商和零售商均面临资金约束的供应链内外混合融资中，相对于“零售商借款+预付款”的融资模式，“贸易信用+保单质押”的融资模式不仅使得供应链中的资金需求更少，融资成本更低，而且会使银行通过交叉销售获得更多额外的收益。除了供应商购买信用保险，零售商也可以通过购买信用保证保险，来提升银行对其的信贷限额，从而减少对贸易信用的依赖。研究发现附加保费的存在会使供应商降低批发价，从而弱化供应链中的双重边际效应，并且供应商的保费分担机制也会进一步实现帕累托改进。.课题分别从文化创意企业、农村中小微企业、商业银行三个角度进行了实证研究。研究显示，在文化创意产业，资金约束的企业可以通过类似于预付款的众筹获得供应链内部融资或知识产权质押获得供应链外部融资，而信用保险可以提升融资效率；在农村中小微企业的集群供应链融资中，事前甄别机制和过程控制机制对融资风险治理效应有不同的作用，而信用保险可以有效防范道德风险问题。通过构建信用保险下商业银行应收账款质押和应收账款保理两套供应链融资信用风险评价的指标体系，实证研究发现，应收账款质押下更需要信用保险来增信，并且此时保险公司的实力和代位追偿能力显得更为重要。.本课题提出的基于信用保险的供应链融资策略，能够为资金约束供应链缓解资金压力，提升整体竞争力提供理论依据和实践指导，也能为银行降低融资风险提供新思路。