中国能源回弹效应的内外生机制研究及调控政策模拟

Existing empirical studies have indicated that to large or small extent and on both micro and macro level, there is rebound effect for China, which means that increasing energy efficiency does not ultimately save the energy as expected. The existence of rebound effect affects the effectiveness of energy efficiency policy which is regarded as the important measure to energy conservation and emissions mitigation. Current various empirical results implies a lack of solid theoretical research on rebound mechanisms while the policy studies ignore the compound effect of policy combinations, which leaves no effective guidance for policy-making. Therefore, taking the perspective of “policy combination”, this research project is carried out as follows. Firstly, to provide empirical supports for the theoretical modelling, the empirical analysis is conducted on how household income and energy price impacts the rebound effect as these two variables are closely related with policy variables. Secondly, according to the characteristics of Chinese economy, the theoretical models are built to explore and identify the exogenous and endogenous mechanisms in China’s rebound effect, which endogenize the policy variables and energy efficiency improvement, respectively, based on economic growth theories such as Barro's model and "directed technical change" model. Finally, based on the theoretical models that are already built, the policy simulations are conducted by using numerical simulations and simulation models to fit in the Chinese reality. The sensitivity analysis is then carried out on key parameters and variables. By doing the above, the policy pathway can be optimized to limit the rebound effect and improve the effectiveness of energy policy for China.

实证研究表明，中国在微观和宏观层面都不同程度存在着能源回弹效应：即能源效率提高却未能达到预期节能效果的现象。回弹效应的存在影响了能源效率政策作为节能减排重要手段的有效性。目前，实证结果纷杂，缺少对能源回弹理论机制的研究，且在政策研究上忽视了政策组合的复合效应，较难对政策实践提供有效指导。因此，本项目拟从“政策组合”的角度切入，展开如下研究。首先实证分析居民收入和能源价格这两个与政策密切相关的变量如何影响回弹效应，为理论建模提供依据。其次，根据中国经济特征，基于Barro模型和“有偏性的技术进步”模型等经济增长理论，分别将政策变量和能源效率改进内生化，建立理论模型，探寻和识别中国能源回弹效应的内外生机制。最后，根据理论模型采用数值模拟和仿真模型拟合中国的经济状况，进行政策模拟，并对关键参数和变量进行敏感性分析。通过以上研究，项目可以找出限制中国能源回弹效应、提高能源政策有效性的政策优化路径。

中国在微观和宏观层面都不同程度存在着能源回弹效应：即能源效率提高却未能达到预期节能效果的现象。回弹效应的存在影响了能源效率政策作为节能减排重要手段的有效性。目前，实证结果纷杂，缺少对能源回弹理论机制的研究，且在政策研究上忽视了政策组合的复合效应，较难对政策实践提供有效指导。因此，本项目拟从“政策组合”的角度切入，展开如下研究。首先实证分析居民收入和能源价格这两个与政策密切相关的变量如何影响回弹效应，为理论建模提供依据。其次，根据中国经济特征，基于Barro模型和“有偏性的技术进步”模型等经济增长理论，分别将政策变量和能源效率改进内生化，建立理论模型，探寻和识别中国能源回弹效应的内外生机制。最后，根据理论模型采用数值模拟和仿真模型拟合中国的经济状况，进行政策模拟，并对关键参数和变量进行敏感性分析。通过以上研究，项目可以找出限制中国能源回弹效应、提高能源政策有效性的政策优化路径。.研究发现，中国能源反弹效应具有以下特征：（1）最终消费对二次能源反弹的影响大于一次能源；（2）作为节能能源的主要用户的生产部门，预计将成为推动油价反弹的关键因素；（3）能源生产部门做出了负反弹贡献；（4）替代效应是触发行业层面反弹的主要机制。而从政策模拟结果来看：（1）在5种能源类型中，提高用电效率对GDP的正向影响最大；（2）燃料间可替代性对宏观经济结果的影响并不显著，但长期影响往往大于短期影响；（3）对于出口导向型行业来说，资本密集型行业在短期内会受到巨大的负面冲击，而劳动密集型行业则会在长期内受到伤害。因此，提高用电效率会导致负反弹，这意味着提高用电效率可能是中国当前能源结构下的良好政策选择。宏观层面的反弹要大于生产层面的反弹。一次能源商品比二次能源商品具有更大的反弹效应。