阶梯电价改革背景下的中国城市居民用电回弹效应测度及节电政策机制研究

The Chinese central government carried out the tiered pricing for household electricity (TPHE) in China in July 2012, which aims to establish a rational energy pricing mechanism and resolve issues of resource pricing and efficiency. In particular, the electricity pricing mechanism, which is closely related with resident life, attracts increasing attention from economist and policy makers. Energy efficiency improving policies have a special significance for carbon emission reduction and the climate change effects mitigating. However the energy rebound effect caused by technology progress will indirectly increase energy consumption. The magnitude of rebound effect largely determines the effectiveness of energy efficiency in mitigating energy consumption. Since the effective level of energy efficiency in mitigating energy consumption depends largely on the scale of the rebound, the potential efficiency of energy conservation will be estimated exactly under the condition of fully considering the rebound. Therefore, the further study and measurement on rebound effect can provide necessary theoretical and practical guiding significance for the rational formulation and effective implementation of energy policy. whether the implement for TPHE has reached the energy saving and pollutant emission reduction result, whether the pricing mechanism for the tiered pricing of household electricity should be optimized, whether the new energy saving policy should be proposed. These problems all should be deep consideration and further study. We will carry on the research from four aspects to solve the above problems and minimize their adverse impact. Firstly, dissect the influence mechanism for the tiered pricing reform for household electricity. Secondly, calculate the rebound effect for residential electricity consumption before and after the tiered pricing reform for household electricity. Thirdly, optimize pricing mechanism for the tiered pricing of household electricity. Finally, establish the mechanism for energy conservation policy when the tiered pricing for household electricity implemented.

2012年7月阶梯电价在全国29个省市展开并实施，这一价格政策的实施有利于提高城市居民用电的能源利用效率，引起了经济学者的广泛关注。提高能源效率是延缓气候变化与节能减排的重要策略，然而能源节约新技术的引进会引起回弹效应，进而间接导致能源消费的增加。由于能源回弹效应的大小决定了提高能源效率对于降低能源消费的有效程度，因此如果能将回弹效应充分考虑至节能政策的制定，就能够更加精确地度量和评估能效改进所获得的节能效果。阶梯电价的实施究竟是否起到了政策设计之初的的节能效果，阶梯电价的定价机制是否需要优化改进，是否需要重新制定相应的节能政策，这是阶梯电价实施四年多来需要深入总结与探究的问题。针对上述问题，本课题拟从四个方面进行研究。第一，剖析阶梯电价实施的影响机理。第二，测算阶梯电价实施前后的中国城市居民用电回弹效应。第三，优化居民阶梯电价的定价机制。第四，构建阶梯电价改革背景下的城市居民节电政策机制

2012年7月阶梯电价在全国29个省市展开并实施，这一价格政策的实施有利于提高城市居民用电的能源利用效率，引起了经济学者的广泛关注。提高能源效率是延缓气候变化与节能减排的重要策略，然而能源节约新技术的引进会引起回弹效应，进而间接导致能源消费的增加。由于能源回弹效应的大小决定了提高能源效率对于降低能源消费的有效程度，因此如果能将回弹效应充分考虑至节能政策的制定，就能够更加精确地度量和评估能效改进所获得的节能效果。阶梯电价的实施究竟是否起到了政策设计之初的的节能效果，阶梯电价的定价机制是否需要优化改进，是否需要重新制定相应的节能政策，这是阶梯电价实施四年多来需要深入总结与探究的问题。本研究的主要贡献如下：.第一，本研究从能源回弹效应问题的提出与争论、涵义界定、理论演进、实证测算等方面，对国内外相关研究成果进行了系统地梳理与总结，重点对其理论演进、实证测算研究进行了剖析，揭示了能源回弹效应的作用机制。.第二,本研究以1996-2011年中国31个省区的面板数据，通过构建非对称价格下的双对数需求模型与误差修正模型，对中国城镇居民用电消费的直接回弹效应进行了实证分析。结果表明：中国城镇居民用电消费存在明显的部分回弹效应，且长期回弹效应为0.74，短期回弹效应为0.72。效率改进所带来的大部分城镇居民用电节约都由于回弹效应的存在被抵消了，回弹效应的存在大大降低了能效政策的实施效果。.第三，通过整合消费者需求理论与投入产出理论，将我国135部门投入产出表合并为八部门投入产出表，构建了我国城镇居民用电消费能源投入产出模型，并构建根据收入弹性、支出权重变化及按比例再支出三种测算情景，估计了我国城镇居民用电的间接回弹效应。测算结果表明，我国城镇居民用电间接回弹效应长期为18.4%-19.3%，短期为19.8%-20.8% 。.第四,基于“干中学”思想，突破以往研究在基于技术进步外生这一严格假设的新古典经济理论框架开展理论研究的传统思路，在能源效率内生化的视角下，构建基于嵌套CES生产函数的中国整体经济能源回弹效应测算模型。研究结果表明：在能源效率内生化条件下，CES生产函数对于经济层面能源回弹效应的测算具有足够的灵活性和解释力；改革开放后，我国经济层面的长期能源回弹效应总体上表现为逆反效应，短期能源回弹效应则表现为部分回弹效应；通过能效改进来降低能源消费的政策思路短期内在我国是总体可行