碳排放权交易体系中企业违约行为与监管机制构建的实验研究

Carbon emission trading has become an important means of controlling greenhouse gas emissions in the world. With the expansion of trading mechanism, the influence factors on default behavior of enterprises have increased. Default behavior of enterprises has become increasingly varied and complex, which damages the trading efficiency seriously. Default behavior of enterprises is the research object of this project, and construction of supervision system is the research problem of this project. On the basis of collecting primary data of carbon emission trading, this project analyze carbon emission trading mechanism firstly. Then this project will conduct six groups of experiments studying how the weak supervision mode, saving mechanism, market power, the initial quota allocation, demand shocks and uncertainty reduction policy influence default behavior of enterprises.This project will reveal the law of occurrence, development and evolution of default behavior of enterprises and analyze price effect and nonprice effect of default behavior by calculations. On the basis of understanding interaction mechanism between carbon trading mechanism and default behavior of enterprises, testing the effects of three measures,such as quotas cross failure, dynamic supervision, the buyer responsibility principle, this project will construct efficient supervision mechanism of carbon emission trading from four aspects,such as the information mechanism, the financing mechanism, monitoring and verification mechanism and accountability mechanism. The study of this project is helpful to enhance construction level of China's carbon emission trading system , guide enterprises to abide by the rules of carbon trading, and promote international cooperation in climate governance.

碳排放权交易已成为全球控制温室气体排放的重要手段，但随着交易机制的拓展，影响企业违约的因素日益增多，企业违约行为呈现多样化和复杂化特征，严重损害交易效率。本课题以碳交易中企业违约行为为研究对象，以构建科学的监管机制为主要问题，在收集我国碳交易一手数据的基础上，首先对碳交易机制进行分析，然后通过弱监管模式、储蓄机制、初始配额分配、市场势力、需求冲击、不确定性减排政策六组实验，揭示碳交易机制下企业违约发生、发展及演变的客观规律；进而运用计量方法探究企业违约行为对碳交易带来的价格效应和非价格效应；在碳交易机制与企业违约行为互动机理的基础上，通过实验测试配额交叉失效、动态监管、买方责任原则等措施的效果，最终从信息机制、资金机制、监测核查机制和问责机制四个方面构建碳交易监管机制。本课题的研究有助于提升我国碳排放权交易体系的建设水平，引导我国企业遵守碳交易规则，推动中国在气候问题治理方面的国际合作。

碳排放权交易通过为重点排放企业设定总量控制目标，促使企业加强碳排放管理，刺激低碳领域的投资与创新，进而促进产业结构调整升级。在碳交易过程中企业有通过违约行为最大化经济利益的动机。企业违约行为发生后，从环境目标来看，污染物排放量上升，大气环境持续恶化；从碳市场来看，配额价格失真，交易成本上升。因此合理的碳交易监管机制必须建立在对企业违约行为科学分析的基础之上。本课题的研究内容包含四部分：碳交易企业违约影响因素等基础问题、碳交易体系与企业违约行为的互动机理、企业违约行为对碳交易的影响和科学监管体系的设计。研究结果表明，碳交易市场中企业违约的影响因素从大到小依次为社会责任、经济成本、碳减排系数、碳价格和减排效率。其中碳价格作为碳交易效率的指标，又受到多重因素影响。碳交易市场中纳入碳补偿机制能够提高社会产出并稳定碳价，按照企业总碳排放量的比例确定的碳补偿比例上限相对效果最好。碳配额政策对总体社会福利更优，而碳补贴政策使企业获得更高产量和更高总体净化减排量。碳市场中企业的违约行为以报告违约为主。完全监管与强监管下的违约率相当，因此无需付出全部抽查的行政管理成本来监控企业违约率。碳配额储蓄机制能促使企业以一个相对有效的方式跨期分配生产量，从而减弱不确定性因素对生产量、排放量、碳配额价格的冲击。为了构建有效的违约监管机制，首先惩罚倍数应大于1.49，其次应对企业违约行为设置报告违约、排放违约和合并违约分级处罚，第三应当设置累进处罚机制，根据企业规模和碳市场的参与度进行累进。课题通过仿真企业违约行为，揭示了碳市场中企业违约发生、发展及演变的客观规律，从而在科学分析企业违约行为的基础上，提出了适合中国国情的碳交易监管机制。