工业城市密集区环境政策协同机制及模型化解释—以沈阳经济区为例

Climate change and air pollution are closely linked, but surprisingly, in applied scientific research and even more so in political negotiations have largely been separated. Capturing co-benefits and avoiding trade-offs in addressing the two problems simultaneously offers potentially large cost reductions and reductions of health and ecosystem risks. This study innovatively focuses on the mechanism and modeling of co-benefits between atmospheric with climate change policies in industrial urban agglomeration area, using Shenyang Metropolitan Area as a case study. Firstly, an analytical matrix and its database are established by employing the data coding and theme identification approaches. Secondly, a structural hierarchy framework and concept formula are proposed for qualifying the co-benefits at single city level. After that, empirical studies are carried out from the viewpoints of both single city and metropolitan area, which aims to establish the general mathematic model for analyzing and identifying the driving mechanism, basic pattern and common phenomenon between and within the cities investigated. It would be meaningful to explain the co-benefits of time-space interaction activities and feedback pathways both at regional and city levels. By employing the social network analysis, we clarify and explain the formation and topology mechanisms of co-benefits in metropolitan area. Finally, based on the above outcomes, the study introduce a scenario analysis to find out the pathways for achieving co-benefits between atmospheric with climate change policies, and also to propose the policy suggestions. The achievements of this project are expected to improve the ability on post-evaluation and prediction of relative policies, to provide the support for national environmental building and international environmental games, and also to benefit for the quality research in the field of co-benefits in environmental management.

开展城市环境政策协同机制研究是推动环境管理理论创新的重要方向，也是指导区域管理实践的迫切需要。本研究以沈阳经济区为案例，开展大气污染与应对气候变化政策的协同机制及其模型化解释研究。基于数据编码和主题识别方法，构建环境政策分析矩阵及其数据库，建立协同机制层次分析框架；先后从单体城市与经济区视角开展实证研究，构建城市及城际环境政策的协同机制的一般分析模型，探寻和解释政策协同方面的动力机制、基本路径及一般规律，识别区域与城际环境政策协同效应的时空交互反馈现象；基于社会网络分析，研究和阐明城际政策协同的形成机制及拓扑机理；最后，基于情景分析提出工业城市密集区环境政策的协同优化路径及政策建议，并在实际应用上建立面向环境政策系统优化的区域政策工具，提高区域及城市对于环境政策的后评估分析和预测预报能力，为国家的环境建设与国际环境话语权博弈提供基础理论和科技支撑，补充和完善环境管理领域协同机制的量化研究。

开展城市环境政策协同机制研究是推动环境管理理论创新的重要方向，也是指导区域管理实践的迫切需要。本项目通过引入多学科交叉方法，从自然科学与社会科学相互融合视角，完成了“全球、国家、省(市)、县(区)”等四个空间尺度以及在5年、10年、15年乃至20年等时间跨度上的部分环境与经济及社会数据的融合与集成工作，并且集成了不同时空尺度上环境政策及法规等，构建了国际、国家和地方环境政策的分析矩阵及其数据库，初步构建了区域城市环境政策制定、执行及过程优化协同分析框架和概念性模型；并基于该分析框架和模型，解析了东北老工业城市聚集区单体城市（如沈阳、大石桥等）及城际（沈阳经济区8个城市之间）协同效应的作用机理以及老工业区环境政策（如城市工业活动后搬迁遗留土地即棕色地带的治理政策）对该地区生态风险和健康风险评估。在此过程中，我们创新性地将Co-benefit方法学引入到重污染行业（例如大石桥镁产业）的环境绩效评估，具体阐述了Co-benefit方法学的计算步骤、前提条件与环境意义和协同模型构建等，并发现环境政策执行存在显著的区域时空差异；同时本项目也尝试将地理学方法(GIS分析)、数学建模(小波分析等)、经济学方法(能值分析、生命周期评价等)，以及社会学方法(社会网络分析-SNA)等工具方法进行跨学科融合与集成，为创新和建立“人类活动与环境演化的生态耦合分析”方法体系(环境计算)垫定了坚实的科学基础。最后，本项目也基于情景分析提出东北地区环境政策的协同优化路径及政策建议，并在实际应用上尝试建立面向环境政策系统优化的区域政策工具，提高区域及城市对于环境政策的后评估分析和预测预报能力，为国家的环境建设与国际环境话语权博弈提供基础理论和科技支撑，补充和完善环境管理领域协同机制的量化研究。