GVC贸易利益与碳减排的协调机制及基于GVC-CGE模型的政策评估研究

Despite global consensus on carbon emissions reduction, there are still significant disputes over the allocation of carbon emissions responsibility, given the necessity of promoting economic growth. Meanwhile, Global Value Chains(GVC) theory and calculation method enable us to redefine “open economy”, and related trade gains and losses. Hence this project will revalue how international division of labor via global value chains affects economic gains and carbon emission of each country and industry and intends to propose a renovate framework and methods to balance the above interests conflicts.Specifically, based on Global Inter-regional IO model (GIRIO), we propose “carbon intensity” indicators which reflect comprehensive trade gains from the perspectives of countries and industries, supply and demand, etc., and analyze the evolving characteristics. Furthermore, in view of the multiple dimensionality of the above intensity indicator, develop a new decomposition method by transforming the intensity index into a multiplicative formula to measure the attribution of each country, sector to global carbon intensity change, and the determinates of trade embodied carbon emission outflow. And, considering “carbon leakage” and “economic interests leakage” via global trade, we design an alternative principle to coordinate economic gains and environmental costs by introducing “least carbon emission in trade” to allocate carbon emission reduction responsibilities. Based on the WIOD, the project also construct GVC-CGE model by incorporating Melitz trade theory and environment modules in traditional CGE model, and evaluate how carbon tax, carbon tariff and other policy shocks affect the GVC trade gains, carbon emissions, emissions reduction responsibility of each country.

碳减排已达成全球共识，但受各国经济增长等约束，减排责任分歧较大。同时，全球价值链（GVC）统计核算方法的推广，重新解读了开放经济，形成了新的贸易利益观。基于此，项目拟重新审视全球价值链分工对各国各产业带来的经济利益与碳排放的影响，为GVC视角下全球气候治理提供一种新的利益协调机制和分析工具。具体而言，基于GIRIO模型，从国家和产业维度、供给和需求维度出发，构建反映综合利益的“碳排放强度”比值指标并分析其变化特征。针对多维特征和“和式/和式”特征创新分解方法，厘清国家和产业维度的贡献以及贸易碳排放转移的影响因素。综合考虑贸易中的“碳泄漏”及“经济利益泄漏”，提出基于“最小碳排放强度”进行利益协调的碳减排责任分配方案。构建基于国际投入产出表，具有Melitz模型特征和环境模块的GVC-CGE模型，评估碳税、碳关税等政策对各国GVC贸易利益和碳排放以及碳减排责任的影响。

碳减排已达成全球共识，但受各国经济增长等约束，减排责任分歧较大。同时，全球价值链（GVC）统计核算方法的推广，重新解读了开放经济，形成了新的贸易利益观。.基于此，项目重新审视全球价值链分工对各国各产业带来的经济利益与碳排放的影响，为GVC视角下全球气候治理提供一种新的利益协调机制和分析工具。具体而言，基于ICIO模型，从国家和产业维度、供给和需求维度出发，构建反映综合利益的“碳排放强度”比值指标并分析其变化特征。基于“增值贸易”的测算框架，运用网络分析方法，对全球价值链贸易网络结构是全球还是区域性进行验证。综合考虑贸易中的“碳泄漏”及“经济利益泄漏”，提出基于“最小碳排放强度”进行利益协调的碳减排责任分配方案。针对多维特征和“和式/和式”特征创新分解方法，提出考虑全球价值链溢出效应的空间结构分解方法，提出满足因素互换检验，“倒数贡献”一致性检验，时间互换检验强度贡献率新分解方法，提出autarky的反事实结构分解法，以及以上分解方法厘清国家和产业维度的贡献以及贸易碳排放转移的影响因素。构建基于国际投入产出表，具有Melitz模型特征和环境模块的GVC-CGE模型，评估碳税、碳关税、中美贸易摩擦、美国“税改新政”等政策对各国GVC贸易利益和碳排放以及碳减排责任的影响。.上述研究对于厘清复杂国际分工下减排责任与贸易利益的定位悖论、贸易利益真实收益和碳排放责任归属的利益分歧、多维度和外部性的分解困难、碳基政策和经济贸易政策的评估提供重要理论支持和科学工具，为中国参与有关贸易自由化与气候变化的全球治理过程中的规则制定，提高中国在此类国际事务中的代表性和话语权、积极参与引领全球经济与气候治理有着重要的参考价值。