基于GERT网络的国产复杂装备协同研发机制及其财政补贴政策研究

According to the significant demand for system optimization combining technology,economics, management and policy at this stage of multi-agent, multi-stage,multi-scenario situations for the collaborative research and development (R&D) of domestic complex equipment, the project makes some research by analyzing some management cases of collaborative R&D complex equipment, such as domestic and foreign large aircraft project and National Key Scientific Instrument and Equipment Development Project and so on. Firstly, the project analyzes properties and character distribution of complex systems network structure parameters and transfer parameters and then builds Graphic Evaluation and Review Technique ( GERT) network structural relation analysis model of collaborative R&D of domestic complex equipment by using Delphi, Factor Analysis and SVM. Secondly, the project makes analysis on investment decision behavior for collaborative R&D subject based on prospects driving. Thirdly, by Comprehensive Application with contract theory and dynamic game of incomplete information, the project develops contract design at different cost control mode. Finally, by means of empirical analysis related to the main decision-making behavior and performance and financial policy effect simulat ion under uncertainty GERT network, the project conducts dynamic path optimization and mechanism of collaborative R&D subsidies policy. The project carries out collaborative research on network visualization technology of distributed cloud management platform and dynamic policy performance evaluation based on the ideas of Evolutionary Economics and the latest research of GERT network analysis theory and Prospect Theory. In short this study has great theoretical innovation and innovative methods and applications as well.

本项目面向我国现阶段国产复杂装备协同研发中的多主体、多阶段、多情景状况下的技术经济管理政策系统优化决策的重大需求，拟通过国内外大飞机项目、重大仪器专项等复杂装备协同研发管理案例的解析，利用Delphi、因子分析、支持向量机等方法，研究复杂系统网络结构参数和传递参数的性状和特征分布，构建国产复杂装备协同研发的GERT网络结构关系分析模型，进行基于前景驱动的协同研发主体投资决策行为分析，综合运用合约理论、不完全信息动态博弈演化等方法，开展不同成本控制模式下的契约设计，最后通过协同研发相关主体决策行为绩效的实证分析和不确定GERT网络政策效应模拟仿真，开展协同研发财政补贴政策的最优动态传导路径和机制研究。本项目借鉴演化经济学的思想，吸收GERT网络分析、前景决策等理论研究成果，开展协同研发云管理平台的网络可视化技术和动态政策绩效评估的研究，可以说，本研究既有理论创新，更有方法及应用的创新。

复杂装备的研发是制造业的高端和前沿领域，是一个国家高新技术发展水平的重要体现，对于推动我国大型装备制造业实现从价值链低端到高端转移、保证大型装备安全运行、降低运行成本，对促进我国制造服务业实现跨越式发展有着重要的意义。因此，如何对国产复杂装备研发机制开展研究，系统的提出一系列财政激励政策指导、推动与配合复杂装备的研发，提高我国复杂装备的市场竞争力，是一项亟待重视和解决的问题。本项目围绕国内外大飞机项目、重大仪器仪表等复杂装备协同研发典型案例解析的基础上，通过对国产复杂装备协同研发的关键过程及风险和质量管控的系统分析，构建国产复杂装备协同研发激励机制理论与技术体系。针对我国现阶段国产复杂装备协同研发管理的现状及发展趋势，结合国际经验及中国国情，通过协同研发过程中相关主体的决策行为及绩效的实证研究和模拟仿真，开展协同研发财政补贴政策的最优传导路径和机制研究。本项目借鉴博弈论的思想，吸收GERT网络分析、前景决策等理论研究成果，开展协同研发云管理平台的网络可视化技术和动态政策绩效评估的研究，既有理论创新，更有方法及应用的创新。