排放控制和市场驱动条件下的绿色生产策略与产品定价研究

Implementing green manufacturing (GM) can reduce carbon emission, improve the green performance and increase the mark-up price of products so as to affect demands and production. It becomes a challenging and difficult problem to simultaneously make the decisions of GM strategy choice, product pricing and production planning in practice, although these decisions are closely related in the operations management of enterprises. Current research mainly focuses on considering the impacts of government emission regulations to make the GM-production decision or the production-pricing decision. Little attention is paid to the market drivers of consumers and simultaneously optimizing GM, production and pricing decisions to obtain the "optimal" solution. This study makes contributions to the current research in the following aspects. By taking both emission regulations of government and green purchasing behavior of consumers into consideration, we propose integrative models to make the above operational decisions at the same time. Our models also consider the uncertainties such as the risk of implementing GM, the variation of demands and the fluctuation of carbon trading market. To solve this complicated problem, simulation modeling and intelligent optimization are employed as well as mathematical modeling and analytical analysis. The expected research results are as follows. Firstly, establish the quantitative relationships among GM technology, carbon emission reduction, green performance of products and market demands. Secondly, develop different decision models for enterprises, such as single-item and multi-item models with single stage or multiple stages. Finally, solve these models, do numerical experiments and conduct empirical research to reveal the impacts of emission regulations and green purchasing behavior on the operational decisions and the system performance, including economic and environmental indices. Furthermore, provide valuable managerial insights and suggestions to the operations management of enterprise and the policy making of government.

绿色制造可减少碳排放，提升产品绿色性能，进而提高产品溢价空间，影响需求和生产。如何有效选择绿色制造策略并制定好产品价格及生产计划，是企业运作管理亟待解决的重要难题。现有研究主要关注政府减排政策的影响而忽视了消费者绿色购买行为的市场驱动作用，大多集中在绿色生产或生产定价方面而忽视了绿色制造、生产、定价集成优化的整体效应。本项目考虑政府排放控制和消费者绿色购买行为双重影响，将绿色制造风险、碳市场波动等不确定因素纳入一体化决策模型，对现有理论研究进行拓展；采用数学规划与解析分析、系统仿真与智能优化、实证研究等手段，对企业密切相关的绿色制造策略选择、生产计划和产品定价决策进行集成优化研究，以揭示绿色制造、产品绿色性能、市场需求之间相互作用的内在机理，分析不同排放控制策略和消费者绿色购买行为对最优决策及其结果（经济绩效和环境绩效）的影响，进而为企业运营和政府减排政策制定提供有价值的管理对策与建议。

随着排放控制时代的到来，消费者环保意识逐步提升，产品绿色属性对市场需求的正向激励作用日益凸显。传统单纯由市场需求确定的最优产量和定价不再最优，产量过高将导致过度排放增加排放成本甚至带来高额惩罚。为减少排放，企业可实施绿色技术，提升产品绿色性能，进而提高产品溢价空间。此外，碳排放权成为可配置资源后的交易问题也成了企业运作过程不容忽视的重要决策。除产品市场外，绿色生产、碳市场等风险因素也必然影响企业运作绩效。本项目考虑政府排放控制和消费者绿色购买行为双重影响，将市场需求波动、绿色制造风险、碳价波动等不确定因素纳入生产计划/产品定价、绿色生产、碳权交易决策模型，采用数学建模与分析、仿真建模与分析等方法，研究了单产品单周期和单产品多周期以及多产品静态和动态博弈等不同情境下的决策问题。研究结果表明：祖父制分配方式比基准线分配方式下的最优定价更高；祖父制更有利于控制企业碳排放。基准线分配方式下企业通过定价转移排放成本更少，更有利于绿色技术的实施，但基准线分配方式更为宽松，可能导致企业碳排放更高。单位产品碳排放处于某特定范围的企业才会选择实施绿色技术，单位产品碳排放过高或过低都不利于绿色技术的实施；对于部分高排企业，实施绿色技术可能帮助其存活下来，否则将由于排放控制被淘汰；绿色技术的实施并不一定带来总排放的下降，由于单位产品碳排放下降导致产量上升反而可能带来总排放的提高；两种绿色技术条件下，由减排成本和减排效率将形成多个区域，不同区域存在不同的绿色技术选择结果，并不一定更加环保的绿色技术会被实施；多产品竞争中，也存在多个均衡象限，环保企业还是不环保企业实施绿色技术，不仅取决于绿色技术本身的成本和效益，还取决于企业之间的竞争格局。最后，通过深圳市第一履约期的635家企业排放履约数据做实证，对理论模型进行了验证，为控排企业的运作决策和政府减排政策的制定提供了参考依据。