直觉模糊决策视角下OTO模式多构面要素协同机制研究

OTO is the innovation and development of the traditional electronic commerce. Due to the lack of theoretical guidance, the companies are facing the many challenges in operating OTO. In addition, with the increasing complexity of shopping environment and product,consumer not only is difficult in accurately grasping the information of market and product, but also does not clearly know his needs,and makes decision basing on his intuition. Therefore, this project intends to carry out the following research from the perspective of fuzzy intuition: The consumer's decision-making psychological path and mode will be mined, and the multil-dimension factors model will be set up; The project uses social network analysis to establish the community relation picture, and calculates the density and central potential and mines the components of the community relation picture. Finally, the project establishes the social network model of consumer online payment decision under OTO so that reveals the consumer behaviour pattern of online payment decision; Regarding the decision factors as independent variables and regarding the consumer's online payment decision as dependent variable, the project sets up the logistic model of consumer online payment decision under OTO to identify the consumer's online payment decision mechanism; According to the inherent relationship between the online and offline decision factors, the project adopts cooperative game to establish the Shapley model, and finds out and verifies the optimal coordinative alliance by simulation. Finally,the project proposes the coordinative mechanism and path between the online and offline dimensions,and provides the theoretical support for the companies correctly operating OTO.

OTO是对传统电子商务交易模式的创新与发展，由于缺乏理论指导，企业在OTO模式运作中面临诸多挑战。此外，随着购物环境与产品日益复杂，消费者不仅很难准确掌握市场与产品信息，而且对自身消费需求也模糊不清，依赖直觉做出决策。为此，课题拟以直觉模糊决策为视角，开展如下研究：挖掘OTO模式下消费者决策心理路径及定式，构建多构面要素体系模型；采用社会网络分析法，构建社群关系图，计算密度与中心势，挖掘子图成分，建立OTO模式消费者在线支付决策行为模型，揭示消费者在线支付决策行为模式；以决策指标为自变量，以支付决策为因变量，构建OTO模式消费者在线支付决策logistic模型，识别消费者在线支付决策机理；依据OTO模式线上、线下决策指标间内在联系，采用合作博弈建立Shapley模型，通过仿真模拟，求解、验证最优协同联盟，提出OTO模式不同构面要素间的协同机制及路径，为企业正确运用OTO模式提供理论支持。

随着移动电子商务的快速发展，OTO成为当前电子商务重要的交易模式，但由于缺乏理论指导，企业在OTO模式运作中面临诸多挑战。为此，课题以消费者直觉模糊决策为视角，开展如下研究：结合OTO模式特点，课题组研究了OTO 模式下消费者决策心理发展路径与定式，构建了OTO 模式下反映消费者决策心理及行为范式的概念模型；通过实证研究，课题组提出了OTO模式下影响消费者在线支付决策的多构面要素体系，以交易成本为视角，运用结构方程模型方法，建立了移动电子商务下交易成本影响消费者感知价值模型；采用效用理论构建了传统与网络两种不同购物渠道下风险规避型消费者商品效用模型，分析了消费者在购物渠道决策时，搜寻成本、评价成本、支付成本以及时间成本的变化对消费者商品效用的作用与影响；在OTO模式下多构面要素体系构建基础上，以商品线上价格、商品品牌、感知商品质量等构面要素为变量，采用社会网络分析法，构建社群关系图，计算密度与中心势，挖掘子图成分，揭示消费者O2O模式下决策心理及行为模式；选取社群关系模型中支持度、关联度数较高的商品线上价格、商品品牌、电商知名度、商品线下价格、感知商品质量作为自变量，以渠道决策结果作为因变量，项目组采用logistic模型方法，构建了OTO模式下消费者在线支付决策回归模型，挖掘出消费者在线支付决策中上述变量之间的内在联系机理；通过建立成本“迟钝型”与“敏感型”网络消费者商品效用模型，项目组研究了顾客感知的商品效用在网站知名度、产品品牌、价格及产品质量影响下的变化情况；最后，依据多构面要素变量之间内在关联性，构建了协同联盟与Shapley值模型，构建了线上、线下多构面要素最优协同机制，提出线上平台与线下实体店之间协同融合的路径及对策。.上述研究成果不仅有利于发展、完善OTO 模式理论，完善、补充OTO 模式下的消费者购买决策理论，而且有助于电商企业探索、构建OTO模式有效运作规范与机制，对提高电商企业OTO模式运作能力与水平具有理论指导意义。