基于洪涝脆弱性评估的城市适灾弹性空间研究——以武汉市汉口地区为例

Dealing with flood disaster has been a challenge for most of Chinese cities under the background of global climate change and rapid urbanization. The current urban flood disaster researches are short of multidisciplinary integration, as well as lack of specific methods for resilient cities construction. The research proposes the concept of “urban resilient spaces adapting to flood disaster (URSAFD)” based on flood vulnerability evaluation, in order to discuss on urban spatial planning theory and method for preventing urban flood disaster under cross-disciplinary perspective. Hankou areas in Wuhan are taken as the case study, which are typical flood-prone areas. The combination of qualitative and quantitative methods including GIS spatial analysis, mathematical statistical analysis, questionnaire and interview are used in the research. The main contents include: ① factors and generation mechanism of urban flood, ②assessment methods of flood vulnerability, ③identification and classification of URSAFD , ④key technologies for URSAFD planning. The research focuses on resolving the following areas: factors determining for floods disaster, parameter values of flood vulnerability assessment model, relationship discussion between URSAFD identification and vulnerability assessment, key technologies integration of URSAFD planning. The research objective are building a practical urban spatial planning and design system for flood controlling, as well as providing the basis for urban planning decisions for adapting to climate change and mitigating the adverse impact of floods.

全球气候变化和快速城市化背景下，应对洪涝灾害成为我国城市普遍面临的挑战。鉴于当前城市洪涝灾害研究中学科融合性较弱、弹性城市实现路径不具体化的现实情况，提出“城市适灾弹性空间”这一概念，探讨跨学科研究视角下城市应对洪涝灾害的空间规划理论与方法。以洪涝灾害易发区武汉市汉口地区为例，采用GIS空间分析、数理统计分析、问卷调查与访谈等定性定量相结合方法，主要研究：①城市洪涝灾害的影响因素及形成机理，②洪涝脆弱性评估方法，③城市适灾弹性空间识别及分类，④城市适灾弹性空间规划关键技术等问题。重点解决洪涝灾害影响因素的判别、洪涝脆弱性评估模型参数取值、城市适灾弹性空间识别与脆弱性关系论证、城市适灾弹性空间规划的技术集成，从而构建实用的城市防洪空间规划技术体系，为城市适应气候变化、减轻洪涝灾害不利影响提供规划决策依据。

近年来随着全球变化趋势愈加明显，城市洪涝灾害成为城市面临的主要风险和挑战之一。从当前对城市洪涝灾害防治和海绵城市建设实践来看，重工程性措施而轻非工程性措施，系统性思考城市洪涝灾害评估的方法进而提出综合性的解决方法的研究还有待加强，随着弹性城市及韧性城市理论逐渐转变为具有可操作性的实践指导依据，这一问题在理论层面得到了有效的解决路径。为此，本项目提出洪涝脆弱性评估的方法及城市适灾弹性空间构建这一命题。主要对城市洪涝灾害的形成机制、城市洪涝灾害脆弱性的评估方法、城市适灾弹性空间理论架构及实践应用等问题进行研究，以南宁市为例从洪涝灾害防治的视角提出相关政策建议。项目运用多源数据和空间分析方法，识别了南宁市洪涝灾害易发生点、形成原因、形成机制，在理论构建适灾弹性空间的基础上，提出城市应对洪涝灾害的若干对策。主要数据源包括城市气象监测数据、地理信息数据、问卷调查数据等。本项目理论层面旨在完善我国城市洪涝灾害及其防治方面的理论研究，实践层面旨在为城市有效应对洪涝灾害、提升城市安全性方面加以指导。