基于多元社会网络的恐怖组织瓦解研究

Terrorism is the threat to the life and property of the people and the national security in the world including China. In the earlier research, the better disintegration of the terrorism organization is probed on the basis of the effect assessment of the counter-terrorism policy. Based on this earlier research, the study is extended into the internal relationship and structure of the terrorism organization, and that the disintegration of the terrorism organization is explored based on the mera social network. Firstly, the mera social network of the terrorism organization is structured using the data mining ,the relation matrix, the rolling snowball and the relation inferring based on the raleted data. Secondly, the reasons causing the terrorism organization and the factors which are necessary to the terrorism activities are analyzed on the three level of the social network power, the social network structure and the social network function. The mechanisms disintegrating the terrorism organization are proposed focusing on these reasons, these factors and the counter-terrorism measures. Thirdly, the key index of the terrorist is calculated with the status in the social network and the social characteristic of the terrorist. The terrorist is classified according to the key index. Based on the classification and the counter-terrorism practice, the disintegration mode of the terrorism organization is suggested. What's more, the main disintegration mechnisms, the characteristic and the measures of every mode are explained with the successful counter-terrorism example. Finally, the mera social networks and the social networks simulation model of a selected domestic typical terrorism organization are constructed. Based on the current social situations and conditions, the disintegration mode which is fit for this terrorism organization is confirmed after the theory deduction and the simulation. So the disintegration strategy which is fit for this terrorism organization is designed.

恐怖主义在世界范围内，包括在中国都对人民群众的生命财产和国家安全形成严重威胁。在前期依据反恐政策评估的效果以更好瓦解恐怖组织的基础上，本项目将研究触角拓展到恐怖组织内部关系和结构上，基于多元社会网络来探讨恐怖组织的瓦解问题。首先以相关数据为对象，通过数据挖掘、关联关系矩阵、滚雪球和关系推断等方法来构建恐怖组织多元社会网络；然后以多元社会网络为基础探讨恐怖组织出现的原因和实施恐怖活动的必备要素，紧扣上述原因、要素和反恐政策提炼促使恐怖组织瓦解的机制；接着基于恐怖分子在社会网络中的地位及社会属性来计算其关键指数，根据指数高低将恐怖分子分类，结合分类和反恐实践，提出瓦解恐怖组织的模式，并使用成功的典型反恐案例诠释每种模式所侧重的瓦解机制、基本特征和制度措施；最后选择国内某一典型恐怖组织建网和建立社会网络仿真模型，通过理论推导和计算实验以获得实施不同瓦解模式的效果，从而确定适合该组织的瓦解策略。

恐怖主义在世界范围内，包括在中国都对人民群众的生命财产和国家安全形成了严重威胁。本项目基于多元社会网络，按照“构建网络－网络结构－瓦解机制－瓦解模式－瓦解策略”的思路探讨恐怖组织瓦解问题，主要的研究成果如下：一是界定了恐怖组织的内涵，将恐怖组织分为无政府主义恐怖组织、民族独立或分离恐怖组织、左翼或右翼恐怖组织、宗教恐怖组织和其他恐怖组织等五类。二是提出了构建恐怖组织多元社会网络的方法，在描述“基地”组织和爱尔兰共和军组织结构的基础上，提出单个恐怖组织具有等级制的指挥决策层和无标度网络的行动层。三是提出恐怖组织间网络整体上符合无标度网络，并研究了该网络小团体和核心组织的特点。四是在信仰、资金、武器、信息和知识这五个组织支撑因素的基础上提出恐怖组织瓦解的一般组织原因，再结合恐怖组织实际瓦解过程总结恐怖组织瓦解的三个主要机制。五是提出了评价恐怖组织成员重要性的方法，根据组织成员重要性的高低将恐怖组织的瓦解模式分为侧重于瓦解组织高层、中层、底层和瓦解整个组织四种模式，并依次用瓦解泰米尔猛虎组织、基地组织、爱尔兰共和军和埃塔的情况来系统阐释每种瓦解模式。六是将不同的恐怖组织瓦解模式应用于构建的恐怖组织网络，得出瓦解组织中层这一策略的效果相对较好。七是结合前文的研究成果和“东突”恐怖组织的特点，提出对我国长期和短期反恐维稳的启示。. 本项目出版专著和教材各1部，发表论文11篇，其中EI检索1篇，EI待检索1篇。培养博士生1名，硕士生8名，本科生3名，参加国内外学术会议8次。