通航环境耦合作用的船舶动力系统能效提升灰色建模研究

Establing an energy efficiency improvement model based on sailing environment mutual coupling theory is the basis of improving the ship power system operating energy efficiency, as well as realizing the energy saving and emission reduction, it needs to determine the main factors influencing the ship energy efficiency, reveal multi-factor coupling mechanism, and researchs the influence degree of uncertainty sailing environment and working conditions on energy efficiency of ship power system. This projiet will be based on the grey theory, ,taking account of the energy efficiency influencing factors with grey and fuzzy characteristic. With the goal to improve the ship energy efficiency,firstly, we will carry out the uncertainty analysis of ship sailing environment in order to build the nonlinear regression response relationship among stroke, wave, flow and energy efficiency based on coupled theory in real sea scenario. Then we will construct ship energy efficiency improvment models with the energy efficiency operating indicator(EEOI) as the optimization goal, and logistical constraint, speed balance, and safe operation as the constraints. Modeling will be performed on the three views of different spatio-temporal sections, multi-device coordination horizontal and multi-stage vertical. Finally, we will explore new techniques for solving grey nonlinear optimization model based on extensive variation calculus and evoluted intelligent algorithms, and develop the optimal control strategy for ship adaptive energy efficiency improvement of sailing state in complicated marine environment. Project achievements have great significance for the development and improvement of grey theory, as well as promoting management of ship power system energy efficiency and realizing low-carbon operation.

建立通航环境要素相互耦合作用的动力系统能效提升模型是提高船舶营运能效、实现节能减排的基础，需要确定影响船舶能效的主要因素，揭示多因素耦合作用机理，研究不确定通航环境与船舶工况对船舶动力系统能效的影响程度。考虑到能效影响因素具有灰性和模糊性，本项目将以灰色系统理论为基础，以船舶能效提升为目标，首先开展船舶通航环境的不确定性分析，确定基于海洋环境耦合作用理论的实海情景中风浪流与能效的非线性回归响应关系；其次建立以船舶能效营运指数为优化目标，以物流限制、速度均衡和安全营运等为约束条件的船舶能效动态提升模型，建模将分别从不同时空区段、多设备协调横向、多阶段纵向三个角度开展；最后将基于拓展的变分法与演化智能算法，探索灰色非线性优化模型求解新技术，制定复杂海洋环境下船舶自适应能效提升的航态最优控制策略。项目成果对发展和完善灰色系统理论，推动船舶动力系统能效管理和实现低碳营运具有重要意义。

船舶能效管理系统是一个由人、船舶、工况（洋流,浪高,风速,风向等）及能效管理模型等组成的动态的开放系统。影响因素往往没有明显的规律,影响机理复杂，且随机变化,具有一定的灰性和模糊性。本文把船舶能效提升管理作为一个系统,视其具有灰色特征，为对营运船舶碳排放进行预测、能效实时提升、碳排放评价模型进行研究,就必须在尊重影响船舶营运能效参数的灰色不确定性特征的基础上,利用灰信息覆盖理论建立合适的模型。针对海洋航行中船舶通航环境的不确定性特征，首先针对信息的不完备性和多源异构性，建立了灰信息处理框架，包括基于灰朦胧集的四种形态(胚胎态、发育态、成熟态、实证态)，定义灰信息空间的拓扑体系（灰信息的层次空间、内涵空间等），提出灰原始核、灰转移核、灰原始信息测度与灰转移信息测度的概念及其度量公式，并定义灰信息运算法，则采用灰色系统科学的研究思路，研究灰数背景下的船舶交通流预测、船舶能耗预测、二氧化碳排放预测模型——系列分数阶灰色模型（分数阶累加灰色模型，分数阶累加多变量灰色模型、分数阶累加带延迟的多变量灰色模型、分数阶灰色模型、分数阶离散灰色模型等），研究了分数阶累加的矩阵表示，模型的矩阵表示、解析表达式、误差分析等理论问题，并将其应用与工程实际、非线性能效提升优化模型以及混合灰色关联度碳排放评价模型，探索船舶能效管理与控制新模式。本项目结合实际实验数据，基于极大似然函数，估计出不同转数下，油耗和船舶航速的分布信息参数列，并基于最大信息系数，完成参数与转数的相关性检验，分别建立油耗和船舶航速期望与转数回归模型，同时估计出数据的先验信息。最后结合估计的先验信息和回归方程，利用蒙特卡洛模拟，完成不同转数 下油耗与航速的信息重构。