复杂环境与载况耦合作用下的混合动力船舶能效预测控制方法研究

Ship energy efficiency management is an important part of current research on energy conservation and emission reduction as well as ship intelligentisation. In this research, a diesel-electric hybrid ship is selected as the object, the prediction control method targeting at the power system energy efficiency is studied under the coupling of complex navigational environment and cargo loading factors. The dynamic data of environment, cargo loading and ship energy consumption are obtained from the real ship monitoring system; aimed at the multi-source data, analyses including data cleaning and feature mining are carried out. According to the theory of ship propulsion, the dynamic response model of multiple factors and ship propulsion is established by a combination of empirical formula and numerical simulation. Based on the idea of modular modelling, the mathematical model of each module of hybrid system as well as the power and energy consumption models of diesel engine and energy storage device are established. The instantaneous and cumulative characteristics of energy consumption under different working modes of the hybrid ship are analysed. Based on the situational awareness and prediction of the environmental and cargo loading information, the online forecast model of power demand is established with the online optimisation model of the power output of the hybrid ship is also devised, the models are used to realise dynamic optimisation of ship power from its supply and demand side simultaneously. This study will provide a theoretical and technical foundation for the energy efficiency management of hybrid ships, contributing to the development of green and intelligent ships.

船舶能效管理是当前航运业节能减排与船舶智能化研究的重要内容。本项目以柴-电混合动力船舶为对象，研究复杂环境与载况因素耦合作用下的动力系统能效预测控制方法。从实船监测系统中获取通航环境、货物载况以及船舶能耗等数据，开展多源动态数据清洗与特征挖掘分析。根据船舶推进理论，采用经验公式和数值仿真相结合的方法，建立多因素与船舶推进之间的动态响应关系模型。基于模块化建模的思想，建立混合动力系统各个模块的数学模型以及柴油机和储能装置的功率与能耗模型，分析混合动力船舶不同工作模式下能耗的瞬时与累计特性。基于通航环境与货物载况的态势感知与预测，建立混合动力船舶功率需求在线预测模型和功率输出滚动优化模型，从船舶功率的供需两侧开展动态优化。本研究将为混合动力船舶的营运能效管理奠定理论与技术基础，服务于船舶的绿色化与智能化发展。

船舶能效管理是当前航运业节能减排的重要内容，是船舶实现“碳达峰、碳中和”战略目标的重要手段。本研究围绕船舶能效知识图谱、航速优化、能量管理、能效管理技术等方面开展了国内外研究进展分析。以长航货运001混合动力散货船为研究对象，研究了复杂环境与载况因素耦合作用下的动力系统能效预测控制方法。从实船监测系统中获取通航环境、货物载况以及船舶能耗等数据，开展了多源动态数据清洗与特征挖掘分析。根据船舶推进理论，采用经验公式和数值仿真相结合的方法，建立了多因素与船舶推进之间的机理关系模型。基于模块化建模的思想，建立了混合动力系统各个模块的数学模型以及柴油机和储能装置的功率与能耗模型，分析了混合动力船舶不同工作模式下能耗的瞬时与累计特性。基于通航环境与货物载况的态势感知与预测，建立了混合动力船舶功率需求在线预测模型和功率输出滚动优化模型，从船舶功率的供需两侧开展动态优化。能量管理策略是提升混合动力船舶能效的关键技术，其中基于模型预测控制的能量管理策略能在实时辨识船舶动态参数的基础上，将全局优化转化为局部最优控制，并通过预测模型和优化算法实现船舶能效的实时优化，是能量管理策略研究的热门方向。本研究将为混合动力船舶的营运能效管理奠定理论与技术基础，服务于船舶的绿色化与智能化发展。