基于联接模型的两岸经济关系定量分析

Since the domestic reforming and opening to the world, especially the 1990’s, the economic cooperation and interaction between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan has become intenser gradually. The “Taiwan-Factor” has turned to be too significant to be.neglected when economic polices are set down by Chinese government. Meanwhile,.the uncertainty of Cross-Straits relations still exists. Therefore, it is very important to quantitatively analyze the economic relationship, especially the interaction when the.policies change, between Cross-Straits and put forward some political suggestions in time. This study is sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and.Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council. We make a connected macro-economic model of Chinese Mainland and Taiwan to simulate and research the trading relationship of Cross-Straits. The main problems are as follows: 1、the export dependence of Taiwan to Chinese Mainland;2、the dependence of Chinese Mainland.to the direct investment of Taiwan;3、the influence on the economy of each other in case that the imports and investment from Taiwan are both cut down;4、the effects of the fluctuation of exchange rate on these two regions 5、making several suggestions to strengthen the trading relationship of Cross-Straits for Chinese government based on 国家自然科学基金资助项目结题报告 4 what are mentioned above.

建立大陆与台湾考虑到资本与贸易联系的连接模型，包括大陆模型、台湾模型和连接模型；以此为工具，定量分析两岸经济关系和互相影响，尤其是政策变化时的互相影响，为决策提供参考依据。是一项具有重要现实意义和较高学术价值的应用基础研究。.