基于局部变权的煤层底板多含水层突水流-固-力耦合和评价

The coal seam floor water inrush issue has been the safety problems in mining. Aiming at the problem of single coal seam floor water inrush from multi aquifer, according to analysis of water inrush cases and combining with some research methods and means such as theoretical analysis, laboratory test and numerical simulation, from the aspects of geological field, seepage field and force field, this topic will comprehensively analyses the water resisting property and the law of preventing water of different lithology of water resisting layers, and the law of coal floor water inrush, further study the water inrush mechanism of coal seam floor water inrush from multi aquifer in fluid- solid-force coupling, and illustrate the complex index system controlling the floor water inrush and the law of floor water inrush which is induced by the main controlling factors under the complex fluid-solid-force coupling action. And, the weights of the main controlling factors affecting coal seam floor water inrush will be initially determined based on the nonlinear combination weighting model. On this basis, the variable weights of the main controlling factors affecting coal seam floor water inrush will be eventually determined to reveal the complex relationship of the main controlling factors by using the local variable weight model. Then, the information fusion forecasting model in line with the actual of coal floor water inrush, which truly reflect the nonlinear dynamic process of coal floor water inrush affected by multiple factors, will be constructed based on the local variable weight. It has extremely important theoretical and practical value for the effective prevention and cure of coal seam floor water inrush to achieve coal mine safety.

煤层底板突水问题一直是煤矿安全开采的难题。课题拟针对单煤层多含水层类型煤层底板突水，通过现场突水案例的分析，并结合理论分析、室内试验、数值模拟等研究方法和手段，从地质场、渗流场、力场三方面综合分析隔水岩层不同岩性的隔水性能和阻水规律，以及断裂裂隙存在时煤层底板突水规律，深入研究流-固-力耦合作用下煤层底板多含水层突水机理，阐明控制煤层底板突水的复杂指标体系及各主控因素在流-固-力耦合的复杂作用下诱发的煤层底板突水规律；进一步，基于非线性组合赋权模型，初步分析各主控因素影响煤层底板突水的权重；在此基础上，应用基于局部变权模型，确定各主控因素影响煤层底板突水的变权权重，揭示各主控因素间复杂的作用关系；并构建符合矿井底板多含水层突水实际的基于局部变权的信息融合预测模型，真实反映多因素影响下煤层底板突水的非线性动力学过程，对有效防治矿井底板水害和矿井的安全开采具有极其重要的理论指导意义和实用价值。

针对煤层底板多含水层突水评价中存在的主控因素考虑不全、忽略各主控因素指标内部差异对评价结果影响、不能反映各主控因素在不同组合状态下对底板突水的控制作用等问题，项目调研了大量煤层底板突水案例，采用理论分析、实验研究和数值模拟等方法，对煤层底板多含水层突水模型进行了研究，分析了隔水层不同组合状态下的隔水性能，研究了断裂构造存在时煤层底板多含水层突水的流-固-力耦合作用过程，总结建立了影响煤层底板多含水层突水的主控因素量化指标体系，对各主控因素影响煤层底板多含水层突水常权权重方法进行了优化，提出了主观和客观相结合的非线性组合赋权方法，进一步构建了符合煤层底板突水变权评价规律的状态变权向量，采用K-均值聚类法确定了各主控因素变权区间阈值和变权区间，构建了基于局部变权模型的煤层底板多含水层突水脆弱性评价模型，真实反映了多因素影响下煤层底板多含水层突水的非线性动力过程，项目选取典型矿井刘庄矿为工程示范点，开展了基于局部变权的煤层底板多含水层突水评价研究，评价效果好，为防治煤层底板多含水层突水提供了技术支撑。