煤层底板突水预测评价理论与方法研究

According to the analysis of the theory and a large number of hazard cases of coal seam floor water bursting, the index system of the controlling factors affecting coal seam floor water bursting will be established. And the scientific and reasonable evaluation physical conceptual model of coal seam floor water bursting will be further establised. Then, the similar material simulation and numerical simulation will be used to analyze the mechanism of the coal seam floor water bursting, the complex relationship between the main control factors and the degree that they affect the coal seam floor water bursting. After that, the modern information and mathematical theory, that is the theory and method of the information fusion based on GIS, will be used to establish the model evaluating the coal seam floor water bursting. And the model controlled by many factors reflects the complex mechanism and the nonlinear dynamic phenomena of coal seam floor water bursting in evolution. Next, according to analyzing the zoning threshold, the risk zone affected by coal seam floor water will be confirmed. At the same time, the evaluation model sensitivity is analyzed to improve the credibility and accuracy of the evaluation model. In addition, the floor water bursting hazard evaluation is studied when the water inrush coefficient is less than 0.06MPa/m. Finally, the systemic theory and method evaluating coal seam floor water bursting will be put forward.

通过理论分析并结合我国多年来大量煤层底板水害案例进行总结归纳，建立影响煤层底板水害的主控因素指标体系，并建立科学合理的煤层底板水害评价物理概念模型；在此基础上，应用相似材料物理仿真模拟和数值模拟等手段，分析煤层底板水害的发生机理，分析各个主要控制因素对煤层底板水害的影响程度与方式，以及各主控因素之间复杂的相互作用关系；进一步应用现代信息和数学理论，即基于地理信息系统（GIS）的信息融合理论与方法，建立多因素控制的底板水害评价模型，真实反映煤层底板水害受控于多因素影响且具有非常复杂机理和演变过程的非线性动力现象；并通过对煤层底板水害危险性分区阈值的研究，对煤层底板水害进行危险性分区；同时，分析各主控因素影响底板水害评价模型的灵敏度，提高评价模型的可信度和准确性；结合对临界突水系数小于0.06MPa/m情况下的底板突水危险性评价的研究，提出系统的煤层底板突水评价理论与方法。

为解决随着煤矿开采深度增加出现日益严重的煤层底板突水灾害难题，通过理论分析并结合我国多年来大量煤层底板水害案例进行了总结归纳，建立了影响煤层底板水害的主控因素指标体系，并建立了合理的煤层底板水害评价物理概念模型；在此基础上，采取了高倍扫描电镜观测煤层底板岩层和断裂破碎带微观结构面、三轴蠕变压缩试验等技术手段，获得了大量宝贵数据；运用三维可视化数值模拟技术，分析了采动掘进条件下底板岩层的变形破坏规律，揭示了煤层底板突水的复杂机理与过程。进一步应用现代信息和数学理论，即基于地理信息系统（GIS）的信息融合理论与方法，建立了多因素控制的底板水害评价模型，真实反映了煤层底板水害受控于多因素影响且具有非常复杂机理和演变过程的非线性动力现象；结合对临界突水系数小于0.06MPa/m情况下的底板突水危险性评价的研究，提出了系统的煤层底板突水评价理论与方法。项目以煤层底板突水的典型矿井三河尖煤矿、平禹一矿、成庄矿、沙曲矿，朔州四矿（担水沟矿、杨涧矿、东坡矿、西沙河矿）为工程示范点，开展了煤层底板突水评价的实例研究，得到了生产单位的好评。