网络零售交易风险动态评估及预警研究

This study discusses the establishment of a good E-retailing environment by developing a means of studying dynamic risk assessment in order to create an early warning system with regards to E-retailing risks. In order to accomplish this goal, this project will study the E-retailing transaction process and analyze the online data. The research will also take into account the primary parties involved in E-retailing transactions, namely consumers and E-retailers, and also examine their interactions with logistics, payment and the transaction platform. .Specifically, we will begin by analyzing the massive online data. Then, we will employ system modeling methods to discover the transaction risk elements of the parties and their impacts on each other..Next, we will examine the primary parties’ reliability and credibility rating over time, in order to assess the credibility of both enterprises and consumers alike, creating a dynamic multidimensional risk assessment and early warning model..Finally, we will verify and validate our model by using the methodologies of experimental economics. The value of this research is fivefold: It will help regulate E-retailing transactions; it will help quantify E-retailing transactions; it will help establish a preventive system of E-retailing risks; it will provide a guide to E-retailing market supervision; and it will contribute to the theoretical literature and methodology of E-commerce risk assessment and prevention.

本项目以网络零售为研究对象，以建立网络零售良性交易环境的现实需要为出发点，从交易流程及在线数据分析入手，综合考虑消费者、商家两个交易主体与物流方、支付方和交易平台等相关主体之间的交互关系，从客观角度研究交易风险动态评估及预警机制。具体研究内容为：通过对大量网络零售在线数据进行分析处理，采用系统建模方法，揭示各主体交易风险要素及其影响关系；通过将时间因素引入网络零售交易主体评价，建立网络零售交易主体信用度量和评价模型，实现对商家、消费者信用的动态评价；将交易主体信用的动态变化和客观交易因素的影响纳入交易风险预测，建立网络零售交易风险多维度动态评估及预警模型，采用实验经济学的方法对模型进行检验和修正。本项目研究有助于促进网络零售交易风险管理的科学化、定量化和规范化，为网络零售业风险动态防范体系建设和市场监管提供有效指导，同时也将丰富电子商务风险管理领域相关理论及方法的研究。

本项目针对网络零售交易风险动态评估及预警研究这一课题顺利展开，研究内容涵盖了交易风险要素提取、交易主体信用度量与评价和交易风险动态评估等各项计划任务，运用实验经济学方法对交易主体识别进行了实验研究。项目研究过程中积累了大量数据，包括在线交易平台数据、微博评论数据、店铺促销数据、问卷调查数据及实验数据等。项目完成了预期目标，形成了风险识别、风险度量、风险演化、风险预警方面的大量研究成果，尤其在基于在线数据的风险要素提取、消费行为分析、消费者信任机制与信用评估等模型方法研究方面形成了良好积累。项目还涉及了网络零售交易数据分析相关技术、跨境电子商务风险因素分析、网络零售风险与购买意愿相关性分析、电商促销影响因素分析等。项目成果为电子商务风险管理领域研究提供相应的模型方法，对网络零售交易实践中如何降低风险具有指导意义。