农业发展的低碳转型：进程评估、影响因素及推进策略

It’s of great significance and far-reaching meaning on agricultural low carbon transition under green growth strategy. Agricultural products’ demand pressure, resources and environmental constraints and carbon reduction requirements make it inevitably and urgently to agricultural low carbon transiton. However, immediate transition of long-time traditional growth patterns to modern ways of development characterized by low energy consumption, low emission and low pollution for agriculture is no less than ‘Phoenix's Nirvana’. It needs us to clear up thoughts and make innovations of concepts. It also needs us to make systematic research on: contents, characteristics and management style of green growth and low carbon economy; local features and evolving dynamics of agricultural carbon emissions; progress evaluation and reginal differentiation of agricultural transition; micro and macro level influcing factors of agricultural carbon emissions; target partition, responsibility allocation, possible solutions and advancement policies of agricultural carbon emission reduction. Based on related studies, using modern economic analytical tools including life cycle assessment - input and output method, multi-objective optimization planning, environmental factors decomposition, environmental efficiency and environmental total factor productivity, Gini indexes, environmental regulation activity analysis model and environmental Potter Hypothesis based on directional distance functions, this research attempts to make further studies on the issue of agricultural transition thoroughly under green growth strategy. Conclusions can be used as data foundation and scientific proofs to agricultural low carbon transiton and public policy innovations.

绿色增长战略下的农业低碳转型意义重大且内涵深远。农产品需求压力、资源环境约束和减排要求使得农业低碳转型不可避免且极为紧迫，但要从长期以来的传统增长模式迅速转变为以低能耗、低排放、低污染为特征的现代发展方式不啻于凤凰涅槃，需要理清思路、革新观念，更需要对绿色增长与低碳经济的内涵特点与管理方式、农业碳排放的区域特征与演进、农业低碳转型的进程评估与区际分异、农业碳排放的宏微观影响因素、农业碳减排的目标划分、责任分摊及可能路径与推进政策等问题进行系统的研究。本项目拟在相关研究基础上进一步凝炼方向，利用生命周期投入产出法、多目标最优化规划、环境要素分解、环境效率与环境全要素生产率、基尼系数、基于方向性距离函数的环境规制行为分析模型与环境波特假说等现代经济分析工具，较为深入地探讨绿色增长战略下的农业低碳转型问题，研究结论将为农业低碳转型与公共政策创新提供数据基础与科学依据。

本项目以绿色增长理论为研究基础，对农业低碳转型的内涵特征及其与绿色增长的关系进行分析，以效率与生产率分析、面板数据计量经济模型分析等方法为实证手段，对农业低碳转型的进程进行评估，依据实证结果，为推进农业的低碳转型提供可资借鉴的对策建议。研究的主要内容有：以种植业为研究对象，利用生态足迹评价方法，构建多个层级对农业生态系统整个生命周期内的碳足迹进行量化核算，对农业碳排放的总体特征及区域差异进行对比分析；在规模报酬不变及产出角度下，利用基于方向性距离函数的环境规制行为分析模型，分析碳排放约束下农业增长的环境效率与环境全要素生产率，构建低碳转型动态评估指数，并据此对区域农业低碳转型的进程进行评估；利用LMDI指数与最新的碳排放分解方法对农业碳排放的影响因素进行分析；构建区域农业碳排放公平性评价模型，综合考察各地区农业碳排放的公平性与差异性；设置不同的情景，结合方向性距离函数与时间滞后因子，构建评估减排行为经济影响的动态行为分析模型，确定通向未来节能减排和农业双赢发展的最优路径；最后立足于研究结论，提出农业减排发展、低碳转型的“一揽子”政策建议，详细讨论相关制度安排、实现路径和政策支持体系（含配套措施），为宏观决策部门提供政策依据和参考。