风险决策遵循整合模型还是启发式模型？基于信息加工过程的检验

Theories intended to describe decision making under risk and uncertainty can be divided into integrative model and heuristic model, according to their theoretical basis. The integrative model, based on unbounded rationality, implies that individuals integrate outcomes and probabilities in a compensatory way and select the option with the highest weighted sum. The heuristic model, based on bound rationality, in contrast, assumes that people do not integrate these kinds of information but rely on a repertoire of simple decision strategies, called heuristics, to make inferences, choices, estimations, and other decisions. .Whereas there are several cases in which quite different processes are proposed to account for the same outcome data, the traditional behavioral method which tests decision models just on their outcome predictions rather than on a process level could not necessarily determine which model is better. The lacking of evidence on choice processes might account for why the two different sets of models exist and developed in the very opposite way for such a long time..The present project aims to test the integrative model and heuristic model from the point of view of choice processes by using an eye-tracking system and a response time technique. Study 1 was designed to test the integrative model and heuristic model by examining whether decision processes follow the compensatory rule or non-compensatory rule.Study 2 was designed to determine whether participants' decision processes were as assumed by the rank-dependent function employed in most of the dominant decision-making theories, such as cumulative prospect theory or the third-generation prospect theory..The findings of the the present poject were expected to be be helpful in further understanding the underlying processes of decision- making behavior, and they may also provide reference for decision makers in the areas of both economy and management.

人们如何进行风险决策是经济学和心理学共同关注的重大课题。根据基本理论假设的不同,风险决策理论主要可以划分为两大类:整合模型和启发式模型。基于"无限理性"假设的整合模型认为,决策者会基于代偿性法则选择总体期望价值或效用等最大化的选项;而基于"有限理性"假设的启发式模型则认为,决策者会采用非代偿性的启发式策略以达成抉择。鉴于传统风险决策研究的行为学方法在技术上的先天局限- - 仅借助决策结果等外部指标而未考察决策过程- - 无法充分、有效地对决策模型进行检验,本项目拟从决策过程切入,结合反应时技术和眼动技术,通过对"代偿性/非代偿性"规则以及"等级依赖函数"的检验来检验此两类决策模型,旨在更有效回答"风险决策到底是遵循无限理性的整合模型,还是有限理性的启发式模型"这一长期悬而未决的科学问题。冀本项目成果能深化对风险决策潜在机制的理解,为经济、管理领域的风险决策提供理论基础及方法学借鉴。

人们如何进行风险决策是经济学和心理学共同关注的重大课题。根据基本理论假设的不同,风险决策理论主要可以划分为两大类:整合模型和启发式模型。基于"无限理性"假设的整合模型认为，决策者会基于代偿性法则选择总体期望价值或效用等最大化的选项；而基于“有限理性”假设的启发式模型则认为，决策者会采用非代偿性的启发式策略以达成抉择。鉴于传统风险决策研究的行为学方法在技术上的先天局限——仅借助决策结果等外部指标而未考察决策过程——无法充分、有效地对决策模型进行检验，本项目从决策过程切入，采用眼动技术检验此两类决策模型,旨在更有效回答“风险决策到底是遵循无限理性的整合模型,还是有限理性的启发式模型”这一长期悬而未决的科学问题。本项目首先采用眼动技术中的扫描路径分析对风险决策整合模型和启发式模型进行检验。研究结果表明，人们在概率任务中的信息加工模式(扫描路径)不同于比例任务下（个体“被迫”对信息进行加权求和）的信息加工模式；在结果非交叉任务下的信息加工模式（扫描路径）不同于结果交叉任务下的信息加工模式；在单一博弈任务中的信息加工模式（扫描路径）不同于在多重博弈任务下的信息加工模式（扫描路径）。这些研究结果不支持风险决策整合模型。其次，本研究考察了有意识思维和无意识思维两种条件下的信息加工模式。结果发现，两种思维条件下的信息加工模式不同，具体而言，相对于有意识思维条件下，人们在无意识思维条件下对情感性信息赋予更高的权重；而在有意识思维条件下，人们对认知性特征赋予了更高的权重。总之，整合模型不能很好的描述及解释人们的风险决策行为，未来的研究应着重考察两类决策模型的适用情境（例如有意识思维及无意识思维）及边界条件。