冰冻圈服务功能及其服务价值研究

Cryosphere exerts plentiful services to human beings through climate, water, energy, ecology, tourism and unique cultures. However, people only recognize the facts of these services, yet has not engaged a systematic study on the quantity, types, regional differences of these services. Neither on single/multiple services effects, service function formation and its rise/fall processes, threshold/limit of function losing, and so on. No one has calculated its real and potential socioeconomic values. This project is to set up theory of identifying cryospheric service functions (CSFs) and the evaluation methods for CSF values, using cross-disciplinary knowledge between cryospheric, social and economic sciences. We will study the structure, quantity and tendency of CSFs, evaluate their environmental values, socioeconomic values as well as cultural values. The study of CSFs will based on four aspects such as supply service, adjust service, cultural service and support service of cryosphere. Evaluation of CSFs will largely dependent on index selection through expertise consultation method, analytic hierarchy process, frequency analysis approach and others. We are planning to commit case studies to calculate CSF values using travel cost method and direct evaluation method. The study should be able to contribute to the sustainable development in cold and vulnerable west China.

冰冻圈在气候、水资源、生态、旅游、能源利用以及特色人文等领域产生可观的服务价值。然而，人们只是认识到了冰冻圈对于人类社会施惠的种种事实，尚没有系统性研究冰冻圈服务功能的总量、类别、区域划分、单品种与复合品种服务效果、功能盛衰过程、功能丧失阈限，更无人估算其现实与潜在社会经济价值。本项目拟从冰冻圈科学、社会学和经济学相结合手段入手，开展冰冻圈服务功能辨识理论与价值评估方法研究，探索冰冻圈服务功能的结构、量值和趋势，定量评估冰冻圈资源环境价值、社会与文化价值以及经济价值。拟从冰冻圈的供给服务、调节服务、社会文化服务以及支持服务等四个方面，统筹专家咨询法、层次分析法、频度分析法等指标筛选方法，初步建立冰冻圈服务功能价值评估体系。在此基础上，以案例研究为突破口，分别利用旅行费用法和直接价值评估方法，初步估算冰冻圈的服务价值，为我国冰冻圈影响下的生态脆弱区和寒区经济社会可持续发展提供理论基础。

在气候变化的大背景下，冰冻圈的变化及其影响受到广泛关注。然而，以往冰冻圈对人类社会影响方面的研究多以致灾效应为主，关于冰冻圈对人类社会致利方面则缺乏系统、深入研究。本项目从冰冻圈科学、社会学和经济学相结合手段入手，开展冰冻圈服务内涵与类型的界定与诠释，在国际上率先提出了“冰冻圈功能与服务”的概念。进行了冰冻圈服务功能辨识与形成机制研究，构建了冰冻圈功能和服务评估体系，将冰冻圈服务分成供给服务、调节服务、文化服务、承载服务和支持服务等5个大类和18个亚类。辨析了气候变化背景下冰冻圈功能及其服务衰退的级联风险，提出了冰冻圈功能和服务衰退背景下冰冻圈影响区社会-生态系统恢复力路径。本项目从物质量法、价值量法和能值分析法三个维度对各类冰冻圈服务评估方法及其特点进行了系统探讨，首次提出并完善了冰冻圈服务价值评估体系，并率先开展了五个案例研究，将对揭示和量化冰冻圈变化对人类社会的现实和潜在影响提供重要手段，为冰冻圈影响区生态功能区划奠定了重要基础。