面向新型城镇化的城市群综合交通管理理论

In the past decades, modern urbanization in China leads massive agricultural population shifting from rural to urban areas. As a result, nowadays traffic has become one of the major issues in many Chinese metropolitan areas. Apparently, there is an urgent need to develop new traffic management theories and approaches to bridge thegap between the rapidly increasing traffic needs and the current inefficient traffic management systems and policies. In this proposal, we plan to study four major problems that are critical to for the traffic planning and management in China. First, we plan to study the evolution of the long-term traffic demand during the modern urbanization process, and develop the new methods and approaches in forecasting and controlling the traffic demand in the metropolitan area. Second, we will focus on the integrated transportation network design and optimization for the metropolitan area, with the consideration of possible future urbanization for the surrounding rural area. In particular, we will build mathematical and economic models for planning the large-scale intra-and-inter-city public transportation network. We also prepare to approach the transportation network design problem using the Stackelberg game theory, in which each sub-urban region is considered as a game player. Third, we plan to study the integrated decision-making model for equilibrium traffic assignment problem, in which various green/low-carbon transportation modes and multiple urban land use categoriesare considered. We will also build a multi-objective decision making model to optimize the urban transportation planning, industrial distribution, and urban land development. We also plan to investigate the social and economic impact of the public transportation to the sub-urban area. Followed by that, we then plan to build the urbanization model, in which traffic and land develop interact with each other, under different geographical urban layouts. Finally, we plan to investigate the impact of abnormal traffic under different types of city layouts, and reveal the propagation process of the abnormal traffic events. Based on this, we will then develop the model for evacuation of pedestrian and vehicle under such circumstance.

新型城镇化导致城镇人口密度激增，交通压力加大，解决新型城镇化带来的交通问题迫切需要新的理论与方法，城市群的协调发展是解决区域性交通压力的有效途径和必经之路。本项目将研究新型城镇化导向下交通出行需求的动态演化机理，提出城市群交通需求预测的新方法和城市群交通需求管理方法；提出考虑城市群不同发展阶段的一体化交通网络结构优化设计方法，建立新型城镇化导向下的城市群公交网络设计模型，建立基于区位理论合作博弈的多个中小城市参与的交通网络设计模型；建立考虑多种绿色出行方式和多类用地性质的联合出行分布/交通均衡分配模型，建立多目标优化的土地开发和产业布局决策优化设计模型，建立不同形态布局的城市群公交与土地利用互动发展模型；揭示城市群形态构型及其发展对非常态交通活动的影响，揭示非常态交通事件对行人流的影响及状态扩散机理，建立非常态交通事件环境下行人流和网络机动车混合流的交通疏散模型及管理方法。

针对中国城市群快速发展的现状，课题组提出了以城市群综合交通管理引领大城市交通发展的理论方法，为城市群交通管理提供了基础理论支撑。分析了私家车外部成本的内涵并建立相应的估量模型。选取了不同城市规模的样本，对其私家车外部成本进行了估量。对影响外部成本的居民出行距离进行了研究，随后研究了居民出行距离和城市规模之间的关系，对引导私家车消费以及居民出行提出了相应的控制措施。研究了平均出行距离与城市总体交通量与城市规模、城市经济之间的关系，研究了不同规模城市的小汽车外部成本预估方法。研究了如何通过停车管理、停车券分配方法调节城市群内部交通出行分布，以及通过经济杠杆鼓励公交优先的方法。将目的地停车资源的有限性和出行者的目的地选择行为结合起来，以交通分布优化为目标，提出了停车券分配和停车定价两种策略。研究了城市群交通走廊及关键节点的交通安全管理理论；以及面向自动驾驶技术的城市群交通信号配时优化理论及方法。建立了城市群交通量预测方法，以及城市群交通枢纽层级管理方法。研究了交通补贴方法用于城市群交通拥挤缓解，建立了疫情在城市群内部扩散预测模型以及阻止疫情传播的经济调节方法。研究成果用于交通部城市群布局规划方案，深圳市交通拥挤收费方案。本项目按照申请书拟定的计划推进，深入研究城市群综合交通管理理论，圆满完成了预定研究任务，培养了各层级科研人才，建立了一支创新研究群体。