健康与退休的联合最优决策模型及其政策意义

In response to population ageing, policy makers worldwide are increasingly seeking to reform the pension system such that it promotes an expansion of the working lives of individuals. On the one hand, people at older age must be in adequate physical condition to work productively for a longer stretch of their life. On the other hand, significant changes in the length of the working life probably alter both individual’s health investments and public health spending. It is increasingly important to improve the health of older people and encourage them to stay in the labor market, as China is still a middle-income country. This project will conduct the following research: estimate the health capacity of work in China; taking double-linked health and retirement into account, identify the optimal choice of individual’s health investment and retirement age in a life cycle model, and analyze the social optimal choice of public health expenditure and retirement age in an overlapping generation model of general equilibrium; simulate how the discrepancies of optimal choice between society and individual can be minimized by combinations of retirement policy and public health policy. This project aims to untangle the nexus of retirement and health, and to propose retirement policies that are complementary to public health policies, and vice versa, so that aged people will enjoy better health and translate the improvement in health into increased work.

全球范围内，大力开发老年人力资源是应对人口老龄化的共同选择。健康是制约老年就业的最重要因素之一，而更长的工作寿命也会对个人健康投资和公共卫生支出产生深刻影响。因此，如何协同促进我国老年健康及老年劳动参与，在我国“未富先老”的背景下愈发重要，也是本课题拟解决的核心问题。主要研究内容如下：从健康工作寿命等方面，分析健康约束下我国老年人力资源的开发潜力；在考虑健康和退休相互影响的情况下，采用生命周期模型揭示个人健康投资和退休年龄的联合最优决策，结合世代交叠模型在一般均衡框架下，分析公共卫生支出和退休年龄的最优决策；采用情景假设法，模拟不同退休政策和公共卫生政策组合下，个人和社会最优决策间差异的不同响应，探索优化路径；比较研究国际经验。本项目旨在厘清健康和退休的复杂关系，提出相互配合的退休政策和公共卫生政策组合，节约集约利用有限资源，促进老年人健康持续改善的同时有效开发老年人力资源。

我们在一个生命周期模型中考察了医疗和退休（以及消费）的同时选择。健康往往通过发病率，决定收入和工作的无用性，通过长寿，决定积累退休财富的必要性，对退休产生影响。相反，退休年龄通过生存价值和降低发病率的价值推动对医疗保健的需求。我们描述了健康支出和退休之间的最优关系，并应用我们的模型分析了年金市场中道德风险的影响。虽然道德风险总是导致过度的健康投资和工作年限过长，但如果健康对工作无用性的影响足够大，道德风险也会引发过度消费。