气候变化下粤港澳大湾区水-食物-能源系统适应性管理研究

In a climate-change context, increasingly uncertain hydrometeorologic regimes and co-varying water, food, and energy demands pose challenges to the long-term planning and management of environmental resources systems. Growing awareness of potential climate change impacts to the water-food-energy (WFE) systems motivates impressive studies on informing sustainable development. Meanwhile, the systems are inextricably linked. Approach research and policy formulations should thus address the complicated interactions among WFE and the intricate vulnerabilities to climate changes. Also, influenced by the uncertain conditions, events that the predetermined targets [e.g., targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and food production] are not achieved would occur in the future. To quantitatively and systematically explore the likelihood of the event, violation risk analysis should be incorporated. Though many efforts have been taken upon integrated management of WFE systems, there is a lack of research on the following aspects: a) indication of uncertain features in consideration of relationship among correlated variables and climate-change impacts , b) evaluation of violation risks of GHG mitigation and food production, and c) identification of adaptive strategies in water, food and energy in consideration of economic development, environmental protection, and resource management. Thus, the objective of this project is to develop a hybrid approach for reflecting uncertainties of WFE systems influenced by climate-change impacts and their adaptation strategies for sustainable development. Such a hybrid approach will improve conventional methods for assessing uncertainties of WFE systems and their adaptation strategies in terms of: i) establishment of WFE inventory in the context of climate change through incorporating the methods of statistical down scaling model (SDSM), grid-based water balance model (WBMplus), DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model, and life cycle analysis (LCA), ii) reflection of uncertainties and variations of WFE systems by the integrated methods of data quality analysis, fuzzy theory, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC), iii) indication of the joint probability of correlated variables by copula functions and DNDC model, iv) assessment of violation risks of WFE systems by Monte Carlo simulation, and v) management of robust strategies on water, food, and energy by a general mathematical programming model (i.e., inexact fuzzy joint probabilistic programming model). A case study will be proposed to illustrate application of the approach in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, as a typical region in conflicting with economy development and resource supply. This approach will thus strengthen the applicability of conventional methods in terms of uncertainty and risk reflections for WEF systems in the background of climate change.

在气候变化下，水-食物-能源系统展现出随机波动变化的特点，并会对系统综合管理造成影响。本项目将识别气候变化背景下该系统的多层嵌套式不确定性和多重违约风险，并在此基础上建立基于模糊区间联合概率模型的系统适应性管理方法，形成适宜的水、食物和能源管理策略。具体来说，项目将根据气候变化情景预测、水平衡分析和生命周期分析等方法，构建系统数据清单；完善气候变化背景下水-食物-能源系统不确定分析方法，有效判别系统的不确定性和相关性，形成变量联合概率分布；建立违约风险分析方法，识别系统在温室气体减排和食物供应管理所面临的多重违约风险；将上述数据清单、变量联合概率分布、以及违约风险分析的结果纳入到模糊区间联合概率优化模型之中，得到适宜的水、食物和能源适应性方案。本项目选取经济发展与资源环境冲突较显著的粤港澳大湾区作为案例，验证模型的有效性，为落实该区域发展规划、温室气体减排和食物安全等目标提供技术支撑。

以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化正在通过改变水资源时空分布、农作物蒸散发量和土壤含水量，从而对食物系统产生显著影响。以往的研究较多地探讨了由气候变化所导致的降雨和气温的变化对食物生产的影响。对于水、食物、能源管理而言，气候变化下食物生产和消费、水资源供给和能源消耗三者之间的互动关系日趋复杂，可能影响气候变化背景下水-食物-能源耦合系统管理方案的适宜性。即：在气候变化、区域社会经济发展和资源环境保护的背景下，水-食物-能源系统的互动关系还耦合了气候变化的自然属性，以及社会经济发展的社会属性。这进一步增加了系统的复杂性，加剧了分析三者之间互动影响的难度。本项目识别了气候变化背景下该系统的多层嵌套式不确定性和多重违约风险，并在此基础上建立基于多层区间联合概率模型的系统适应性管理方法，形成适宜的水、食物和能源管理策略。具体来说，本项目的科学意义在于分析耦合系统的相关变量（例如：气候变化影响下的降雨和气温与作物产量，以及食物需求和经济收益）之间存在的关联关系，并将此关联关系纳入到食物需求预测、气候变化影响下生态需水分析、食物活性氮评估以及城市群水资源多层管理中，进而提升水-食物-能源系统管理方案的适宜性。本项目所提出的研究方法和程序软件有望在水资源优化管理和食物系统活性氮排放预测等方向具备进一步的应用前景。